Okay, I profess to be old enough to know the origins of the question; I’ve even played the To Tell The Truth video game a time or two. What I don’t know for sure is whether I can tell you which Chipper will show up for Opening Day. Will it be the mortal-lock Hall-Of-Famer who we’ve had the good fortune to watch for nearly 20 years, or will it be the struggling imposter who inhabited his uniform from all-star break 2009 to close to the same time in 2010?
When I first contemplated this post, I was thinking the focus would be statistical. After all, the statistical difference is glaring. Round numbers, you’re looking at a loss of 300 points of OPS (for you phys-ed majors out there, that’s a lot). Both the length and the depth of the slump the imposter was in were almost unprecedented in his entire career. Throughout his career, a slump for Chipper usually meant a power outage, but little else. His OBP remained near .400, his batting average near .300. You could even build a case that a prolonged Chipper slump pre-2009 was almost as rare a sighting as clear rush-hour traffic on the downtown connector! Not this time, though. In the rough equivalent of a full season, his batting average was well below .250. Though still walking frequently, his other hitting skills seemed lost.
I came to realize, though, that historical stats were basically meaningless at this point. He’s proven that he’s capable of putting up incredibly good numbers in his late thirties, even winning the 2008 batting title. He’s also shown that he is capable of doing a reasonable Keith Lockhart impression at roughly the same age.
As we look towards 2011, it’s no secret that the Braves need production, especially from the right-hand side, even with the addition of Uggla. That need goes from critical to merely urgent if HOF Chipper, or a reasonable facsimile, “stands up”. If, OTOH, Chipper Lockhart is sucking up $15 million in payroll, I question whether the Braves will exceed the success of 2010.
Can Chipper, through the miracle of modern medicine, once again show off that silky smooth, syrupy sweet swing (man, his left-handed swing makes me drool!). Or have the whispers of his demise grown to a rebel yell? And, please, don’t say “Let’s see what kind of spring he has”, because 1) Where’s the fun in that? And 2) There will be no reliable correlation anyway.
For my money, we’ll see the best season for a 39 year old third baseman in modern history. The reasons: 1) He will recover from knee surgery. The modern surgery will prove much more forgiving than his 1994 massive surgery 2) He will be more flexible physically than in years past, due to the rehab regimen he’s been on. This will keep him healthier than he’s been in years 3) His confidence is restored; he knows and has proven convincingly that he didn’t forget how to hit, or lose the ability to turn around 100 MPH fastballs (just ask the Tigers about that) and 4) He’s having fun again.
I had the opportunity to spend a little time with him at the 2010 SHOT (Shooting, Hunting, Outdoors Trade) Show. He seemed exuberant and full of youthful energy. Though his early season struggles weighed on him for a while, he seemed to get the energy back and keep it, even after the injury.
I think the Braves will have the best offense in the NL in 2011. And I think Chipper will be a big part of the success. But I’ve always been a huge Chipper fan. I’m sure no one has a differing opinion!
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