After taking two of three from the Nationals, the Braves hit the road for Chicago to face the Cubs at the right time.
The Cubs are 4-14 in August and have lost seven of nine. Their last series was a four-game set with the Padres at home in which they lost all four. They’re at 50-72 and only nine games better than the Pirates, which is pretty bad.
The Cubs are middle of the pack offensively due in part to one of the worst walk rates in the league at 7.8%. They have little discpline in the lineup and are in the middle of the league with a .321 wOBA. Marlon Byrd was a pleasant surprise in the first half and has maintained a .362 wOBA. Alfonso Soriano and Tyler Colvin have been the main power threats with an ISO of .244 and .260. Starlin Castro should be a Rookie of the Year candidate with a .342 wOBA. Aside from Castro, however, they don’t receive much offense from their infield.
The Cubs are on the lower end of the pitching ranks with a 4.25 xFIP. They have a decent K/BB at 2.14 and aren’t pitching as bad as the ERA shows, but it’s nothing to get excited about.
The two teams squared off in the first series of the season and the Braves took two of three, including that memorable Opening Day demolishing when the Braves won 16-5.
Pitching matchups after the jump…
Friday afternoon’s game will see a matchup of Jair Jurrjens and Ryan Dempster. Jurrjens had another great outing last time out when he gave up one run on six hits in seven innings against the Dodgers, walking one and striking out seven. He continues to pitch efficiently and is looking better with each start. Jurrjens has allowed four earned runs and six total in 11 innings against the Cubs, including two unearned runs on three hits in five innings earlier this season.
Dempster is having another good season for the Cubs, posting a 3.98 xFIP with a 2.32 K/BB. He’s walking more but striking out more and is missing about the same number of bats as usual at 10.4 SwStr%. He has given up far fewer line drives and about the same amount of ground balls, so he’s allowing a few more fly balls and that has resulted in a few more homers allowed. His slider continues to be his most effective pitch by far. Dempster has suffered from bad defense lately and has allowed just three earned runs in his last 19.1 innings. He has a 4.94 ERA in 109 innings against the Braves, including one run on three hits in six innings against them earlier this season.
Saturday afternoon’s matchup is Tommy Hanson against Tom Gorzelanny. Hanson continued his hot pitching with another outing of allowing just one run, which he has done now in each of his past five starts. He went seven innings and allowed five hits against the Dodgers. Hanson made his first career start against the Cubs this season and allowed two runs on four hits in 5.1 innings, striking out seven.
Gorzelanny has pitched well in his first full season with the Cubs, recording a 4.35 xFIP. Walks remain his weakness as he has a 4.33 BB/9 compared to a 8.09 K/9. Still, he can be an effective lefty who throws a lot of fastballs and mixes in sliders and changeups. Gorzelanny allowed five runs to the Padres in his last start. He has a 3.80 ERA in 21.1 innings against the Braves.
Sunday afternoon’s matchup is Mike Minor against Randy Wells. Minor earned his first career win in his first start in Atlanta against the Nationals last time out, allowing two runs on five hits in six innings, walking two and striking out five. He has gone six innings in each of his first two starts and has allowed five earned runs in 12 innings.
Wells has had some bad luck this season and is pitching better than a 4.44 ERA. He has a 3.96 xFIP and 10.1 SwStr%, and he’s striking out more at 6.99 K/9. His walk rate remains good at 2.80 BB/9 and he’s getting grounders at 45%. Wells produces an effective slider that he throws a lot, along with a good fastball and show-me change. When he gets high strikeout totals off the slider he’s a tough pitcher to face. He gave up one run on three hits in seven innings against the Padres last time out. He has been tough against the Braves in three starts, allowing four runs in 19 innings with a 2-0 record. That includes six shutout innings earlier this season.
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