After Sale, it’s Elder, who seems headed for his annual second-half swoon and is more of a fourth starter, Holmes a fifth starter, and rookies I wouldn’t throw into the fire. Strider might return in August, but hasn’t pitched consistently well this year. Schwellenbach will return, but how many innings and how well will he pitch?
The need for two pitchers is real; one should have at least a year of team control at a price that matches expected performance. One can be a rental that the club may have a chance to extend. Both will come at a high price. Few of the rentals match those requirements.
A look at realistic rental starter trade targets for the Braves
Note: All contract values are in millions of dollars.
Casey Mize
Mize fits the description of a third starter well. He missed most of 2022 and all of 2023 with UCL surgery, was just okay in 2024, looked like he was back in 2025, and is currently having a season worthy of his draft slot. In 71+ innings over 13 starts this year, Mize pitched to a 2.64 ERA (2.73 FIP) with a 0.98 WHIP. His first pitch is a strike 67% of the time, has a slightly above-average fly ball rate, but his 0.63 HR/9 is sixth-best among pitchers with 70 IP.
The Tigers are currently in fourth, 5.5 games back in the AL Central. Mize is an obvious trade candidate, but the club could offer him a QO; Mize would see it as a pillow contract and stay with Detroit and see what the new CBA brings.
If available, the Braves would pay him $1.12 for August and September, and hope Mize would take a one-year pillow contract with Atlanta or that the Alabama native might accept a four-year, $90 deal with an option.
JR Ritchie and a lottery ticket pitching prospect should be enough for Mize.
Sonny Gray
Will Sammon and Ken Rosenthal opined in The Athletic that “…Gray, who owns a 2.61 ERA over 89 2/3 innings and 16 starts, profiles as the (Braves) best option.”
Gray (36) returned to his best form this year. The Braves would owe about $3.6 for the last two months, so he’s inexpensive, but wait, there’s more. Gray holds a 2027 option for $31 and a $10 buyout of that option. He pitches at 37 next year, and if acquired, the Braves would decline the option and pay the buyout, making him a $13.5 rental. (Spotrac)
Gray still has a no-trade clause allowing him to choose if and where he goes, even if it isn’t to the highest bidder. Maybe that helps, maybe not. Paying a premium price for an aging pitcher makes little sense without the prospect of a new deal unless they include $5 in the deal to lower the payroll cost this year. If the Braves offer JR Ritchie and Cody Miller, the Sox should take it.
Those prospects should be used for the best available.
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