Atlanta Braves: 5 Players to Worry About Ahead of ‘23 Postseason
With everything going right for the Braves, we take a look at five players who could easily have things go wrong at the wrong time.
5. Atlanta Braves Player to Worry About: Pierce Johnson
The Atlanta Braves acquired Pierce Johnson from the Rockies at the trade deadline this year. He was the type of move you expected from a stacked team with a depleted farm system. Atlanta gave up Victor Vodnik and Tanner Gordon for the veteran reliever. But what exactly were they getting in return?
Johnson had an important role with the Rockies this season prior to the deadline. The Rockies' closer Daniel Bard left the team to deal with anxiety issues. Pierce Johnson came to the team on a one-year, $5 million deal and now found himself with an opportunity to close out games for the Rockies. He got his first shot in the second game of the season, March 31st at San Diego. In his sixth big-league season, Johnson had finally earned his first Major-League save.
Why Should Atlanta Braves Fans be Worried About Pierce Johnson?
Since the beginning of last season, Johnson has walked 5.1 batters per nine. In 68 appearances, he has a 3-8 record with a 4.81 ERA. Pierce has incredible strikeout stuff but he has lost control of it over the past two seasons. Since the beginning of last season, only one reliever (50 IP min) has a worse BB/9 on the Braves, and we'll get to him later.
Since the beginning of 2022, Pierce Johnson has a 1.63 WHIP. All the walks didn't help but he also allowed 9.6 hits per nine innings pitched. On top of that, he gave up over one homer per nine, as well. If it wasn't a strikeout, it wasn't good.
Like with many pitchers, as the walks increased, the other numbers suffered. Johnson has struggled with his control in the past year and a half. He was struggling with it when the Rockies sent him to the Braves. Atlanta must have felt like they had a magic elixir for him, and perhaps they did. But his success in Atlanta remains over a very small sample size.
4. Atlanta Braves Player to Worry About: Bryce Elder
I'm not changing my stance just because Bryce Elder had a good game against the Yankees. He was a stud in the first half of the season. He earned an All-Star appearance after being sent down to start the season. It's kind of crazy to think about now, isn't it? We started the season with Dylan Dodd and Jared Shuster in the rotation and Bryce Elder was in Triple-A.
Speaking of the seven shutout innings against the Yankees. That was like swimming from a depth you shouldn't have been at and you barely made it to the surface for air. You sucked that breath in as if you had almost drowned. That's what that last Elder's last start was like. Not drowning.
In the two games prior to that start, Elder gave up 10 earned runs on 13 hits and five walks in just 9.2 innings pitched. The Cubs and Pirates combined to hit .317 with a .908 OPS against the 24-year-old right-hander.
We've discussed the underlying metrics before and included a bit about it in our 5 Reasons the Braves Won't Win the World Series article. There were many reasons to believe Elder could not continue his first-half dominance.
Of the top 30 ERA leaders among qualified starting pitchers in 2022, only one had a K/9 lower than Elder's current 6.5. I'm not saying it's impossible, but it is very difficult to strike out as few hitters as Elder does (in the modern game) and remain among the elite.
His Baseball Savant page doesn't look too hot, either. There is a lot of blue on that page. In fact, there are only two metrics in which he rates in the top half of the league. His fastball spin is in the fourth percentile, his fastball velocity is in the bottom nine percent, his chase rate is 43rd, his K% is 14th, and his expected batting average is 27th. Also, his average exit velocity is in the 38th percent, so he's getting hit pretty hard... which is not good for a guy with who pitches to contact.
You can read into those underlying stats and determine that he must have been fairly lucky to begin the season. Luck might have been running out over the past couple of months. If you look back to June 6th and we even include his latest domination of the Yankees, the numbers aren't good.
Over his last 13 games, Elder has a 4.85 ERA with a 5.05 FIP. He looks like a control pitcher and smells like a control pitcher, but his walk rate is right in the middle of the league. He's league average when it comes to walks allowed. Elder is barely holding the fourth spot in the rotation together right now and in a seven-game series, we are one bad start away from needing his services.
3. Atlanta Braves Player to Worry About: Marcell Ozuna
Many people might wonder, why would you put Marcell Ozuna on this list? He's in the middle of a 15-game hit streak! Since April he has been a beast! WHY?
Let me tell you.
First of all, do you remember that really bad stretch he had... you know 2021 and 2022? Over those two seasons, Ozuna hit .222 with a .675 OPS.
Prior to this season, fans were calling for his permanent benching or trading. He was Alex Anthopoulos' free pass when fans spoke of his big-money, four-year contract. He validated all of the doubts with what had to be one of the worst months in the history of baseball. Ozuna finished with a .085 batting average and two RBI. It's not like he barely played, Ozuna appeared in 18 games in the first month of the season.
Thankfully, he figured something out and got his swing going in May. He was one of the best hitters on the club in the month of May. It was the polar opposite of what we saw in April (and the previous two years). After posting another strong month in June, he kind of fell off in July. In July, he hit just .209 with a .250 OBP. As good as we think Ozuna has been since April, he was conspicuously absent from our 10 Best Braves in July list.
Ozuna is on fire again in August, and we hope it continues. However, he has been more bad than good over the past few seasons. We hope this isn't just a hot streak that could leave him prone to going ice-cold down the stretch, but it wouldn't be terribly surprising.
2. Atlanta Braves Player to Worry About: Kirby Yates
We recently posted a hype piece about Kirby Yates and his wonderful comeback story. Even amidst all the positivity, we couldn't help but notice some of the big red flags on the 36-year-old reliever. If you want to read about all of his excellent accolades from years past, do so at the link above. I'm only here to give you reasons to worry. I'm sorry.
Remember earlier in the article when I told you that since the beginning of 2022, there has only been one Braves' reliever (min 50 IP) to have a higher walks-per-nine than Pierce Johnson? Well, here he is. Yates is walking 5.5 batters per nine innings with the Braves this year.
Prior to this season, Yates had only logged 11.1 innings over the previous three years due to injuries, which is a concern in and of itself. Many of the underlying stats don't have the look of a pitcher with a sub-three ERA. He's even lower than Pierce Johnson with a walk rate in the bottom third percent of the league. He's getting barreled up A LOT. He's in the bottom 13th percent in that category. His average exit velocity is one of the worst in the league, in the seventh percentile.
He is striking a lot of guys out with that super splitter, but man he's getting hit hard and he has one of the worst chase rates in the league. Not to mention, he's walking WAY too many hitters. There is a real reason for concern here since he has earned Snit's trust as a high-leverage veteran reliever with a killer resume. If the numbers start to catch up to him, it could be at just the wrong time.
1. Atlanta Braves Player to Worry About: Charlie Morton
Charlie Morton has been known to be streaky in his time with Atlanta. Granted, things have been looking up for the 39-year-old lately, but there are plenty of reasons for concern since Morton is going to be relied upon as one of our top-three pitchers in the postseason.
Morton has perhaps the most vital role of anyone on this list. Starting pitching is so important in the postseason. The longer format asks for more consistency out of the top-line pitchers. If the offense has a slow night, you need the pitching to back them up. Offenses have to face the best teams, with the best rotations, and their best pitchers in the postseason. We are really going to need Morton.
Morton's strikeouts per nine have gone down by a lot since last year. He fell from a 10.7 K/9 to a 9.8 this season. His ERA is fine but his WHIP has reached lows not seen since 2012 for the big right-hander. Morton has not had a walks-per-nine as high as it is now (4.4) since his rookie year in Atlanta in 2008. The Ks and the BBs are going in the wrong direction this season.
Last season, Morton's first 12 games left him with a 5.67 ERA. That was one heck of a bad stretch. Thankfully, he turned it around. Prior to his previous two starts, Morton had a four-game stretch in which he posted a 7.32 ERA and had 15 walks in 19.2 innings. Hopefully, he got it out of his system and can dominate the rest of the way, but as he approaches 40, you wonder how many times he can pull that trick out of his old hat.