Atlanta Braves: breaking down the Phillies for the 2022 NLDS
The Crucial Games 1 and 2
Atlanta has plenty of playoff experience, plus the recent experience of having vanquished the Mets in that vital series on the season’s last weekend. Over that time, of course, they beat all three of the Mets’ best starters.
They will need to do likewise against these Phillies, though here’s the last several game results against them (this went 5-2 for Atlanta):
- Home win (Fried vs. Suarez)
- Home win (Odorizzi vs. Nola)
- Home win (Strider vs. [Falter/bullpen game])
- Road loss (Fried vs. Suarez)
- Road loss (Odorizzi vs. Nola)
- Road win (Wright vs. [Falter/bullpen game])
- Road win (Morton vs. Gibson)
In short, the results were largely dependent on the starting pitching matchup. The Braves did well when their frontline starters were out there (the 1-0 loss for Fried notwithstanding) and struggled when the back end of the rotation was involved.
This is where the 3rd/4th starter quandary comes into play. The Braves need not announce their roster until Tuesday morning… and likely won’t… but the biggest question is about the condition of Spencer Strider and whether he can pitch in Game 3… or a possible Game 4.
Over this season, he’s faced Philadelphia 3 times as a starter and once as a reliever. Here’s the summary:
- 21.1 innings
- 3 runs… total
- 7 total hits (2 homers)
- 34 strikeouts
- 7 walks
Those are game-changer numbers. If he is unable to start in Game 3 or a potential Game 4, that means a substitution of Odorizzi in his place… and thus Atlanta would have two “coin-flip” games between Charlie Morton and Odorizzi (meaning: “do we get the good pitcher or the bad one this time?”).
That’s why Atlanta must defend the home turf well in the first two games: to guard against any possible issues when going on the road… and to guard against Strider’s possible unavilability.
The Braves are going to be coming in well-rested and set up as good as they can be, but there’s also the need to get ramped/amped back up after the long layoff. That’s where the experience should kick in… they will be ready to play.
Offensive Push
Over the last 30 days, the Braves’ offense ranks 8th in baseball with a 9.9 fangraphs rating. The Phillies are right behind them at 8.2 (9th place).
Change that to the past 14 days, though, and while Atlanta is 10th (3.9), the Phillies are 22nd (-6.7).
This accounts for Philadelphia being 4-8 down the season’s stretch run… a result that got them close to being overtaken by a punchless Milwaukee team for the last wildcard slot. This included losses to Braves, but also the Cubs and Nationals… before finishing against Houston.
Good pitching should shut down this team. We saw this vs. St. Louis, too. Thus the Braves won’t need a bunch of run-scoring of their own: they will need ‘just enough’.
On the hitting side, here’s how the Braves have done in these last 2 weeks:
- Olson: 1.165 OPS
- Ozuna: .987 OPS
- Contreras: .855
- In the 700’s: Swanson, Riley, Arcia
- Due? Harris and Acuna
By contrast, here’s the Phillies over the same time period:
- Schwarber: 1.208 OPS
- Marsh: .836
- In the 700’s: Hoskins, Vierling
- In the 600’s: Stot, Realmuto, Harper
That’s… not going to win a lot of games. Advantage Atlanta.
Bullpen Realities
The Phillies have suffered greatly with their relief corps for multiple years in a row. This season, it’s been better, but there’s a notable recent trend worthy of mention:
Over the last 30 days, Philly’s bullpen ERA ranks 27th in baseball (5.00). Atlanta’s stands at 2.17… 2nd ranked.
Regardless of the outcome of the starting pitching, this may (should?) tip the scales in Atlanta’s favor. The Braves have been shutting down the opposition in the late innings for the past month, and Philadelphia’s relief team has not done that.
So the strategy going in should write itself: work deep counts and get the Philadelphia starters out of the games early. The deeper this series goes, the better chance Atlanta will have in finding a reliever with an off-day.
Meanwhile, the Braves have at least 6 end-of-game pitchers ready to do damage: McHugh, Chavez, Lee, Minter, Iglesias, and Jansen. If Philadelphia can’t score early, they may never do so at all.
The Braves hitters will strike out a lot this week. That’s just what they have done all year (3rd highest K rate in the majors at 24.6%… Angels (25.7%) and Pirates (25.3%) were worse).
However, they were also 2nd to the Yankees in homers (243 vs. 254) and had the 9th-best batting average overall (after a terrible first 2 months). So expect the usual kind of offensive outbursts from these guys: a few hits, fewer walks, and a few bombs.
On paper? The Braves win in 4 games.
Next. The Schedule for this Week. dark
The series gets underway in less than 48 hours.