Atlanta Braves: breaking down the Phillies for the 2022 NLDS
A stunned Cardinals team wasn’t able to recover from their 9th-inning nightmare, so how will the Phillies fare against our Atlanta Braves?
The biggest question for the Atlanta Braves entering this week’s National League Divisional Series matchup against Philadelphia may simply be this: can they duplicate what Cardinals’ pitching did to the Philadelphia offense?
Let’s face it: the Philly offense really only scored twice in two games against St. Louis. One of those came on a rundown play in which the Cards basically chose the wrong runner to tag out.
The fact that an injured pitcher allowed the bulk of six runs in a single inning should not obscure the reality that Philly’s six total hits (or 9 if you count that fateful 9th inning) isn’t enough to win most games… much less an entire playoff series.
That’s the bottom line for Atlanta this week: controlling the Philadelphia offense. But wait… there’s more.
The Basics.. and Recent History
The series opens in Atlanta on Tuesday afternoon… early afternoon. Game 1 is at 1:07PM EDT and the second game comes in at 4:07PM.
Don’t worry about a “day games hex” being on the Braves — technically, they were 25-27 during day games this season.
Most of their supposed day-game issues came when they weren’t playing well early on… or were rolling with a “B+” lineup on a getaway-game. That won’t be the case this week, of course.
Meanwhile, the Phillies didn’t try to get clever and hold back their best starter(s) like the Mets did against San Diego: Zack Wheeler pitched game 1 and Aaron Nola got game 2.
By all (Philadelphian) accounts, that went well for them:
Aaron Nola just authored one of the best postseason starts by a Phillies pitcher since... well, yesterday.
— Alex Carr (@AlexCarrMLB) October 9, 2022
He saw Zack Wheeler's dominant 6.2 innings and matched it. What a phenomenal outing.
This is accurate: neither of their starters gave up a run in 13.0 innings. The Cards got a total of 6 hits and struck out 10 times, with 2 runners appearing due to walks.
But the Cards had no solution for Wheeler all year. In 2 prior appearances, he shut them down: 14 innings with no runs allowed, 9 total hits, 2 walks, and 10K.
Nola faced them only once: 5 runs allowed (a 3-run homer did most of that damage).
But that’s the basic. Let’s look at some further detail.
Breaking Down the Starters
That’s all fine and good, but there’s a couple of things at work before they face the Braves:
- Having played 19 times already in 2022, there’s not a lot of secrets still held between these clubs.
- The Phils aren’t quite lined up to throw their best at Atlanta.
Game 1 coming on Tuesday means that Wheeler and Nola almost certainly are not available until Games 2 and 3: it would be pushing them both on short rest to do otherwise.
The Phillies do have options, though.
Ranger Suarez is the likely starter on Tuesday opposite Max Fried. Additionally, Atlanta really needs to win both games at home before changing venues for Game 3… the point at which the pitching question marks begin for the Braves.
Here’s how the Philly starters have fared vs. Atlanta this season:
- Suarez: 5 starts vs. Braves. The following data is shown in chronological order.
- Innings pitched: 4.1, 6.2, 5.0, 6.0, 6.0
- Runs allowed: 5, 4, 3, 1, 0. That last one was a 1-0 victory over Fried.
- Strikeouts: 4,7,4,4,4
- Walks: 4, 1, 4, 3, 2
- Hits: 6, 6, 4, 2, 5 (2 homers)
- Here’s a pitcher that has improved during the season, with a 4.07 ERA in the first half vs. 3.15 in the second.
- Wheeler: 3 starts vs. Braves.
- Innings pitched: 6.2, 6.1, 7.0
- Runs allowed: 3, 1, 0
- Strikeouts: 10, 8, 7
- Walks: 0, 1, 0
- Hits: 8, 5, 5 (3 homers)
- Wheeler missed a month (through Sept. 20) with a minor injury, but has only allowed 1 single run since then in 4 starts.
- Nola: 5 starts vs. Braves.
- Innings pitched: 8.1, 7.0, 6.0, 7.0, 6.0
- Runs allowed: 1, 4, 5, 4, 0
- Strikeouts: 10, 8, 7, 8, 8
- Walks: 0, 1, 1, 2, 3
- Hits: 5, 7, 7, 7, 4 (5 homers)
- The Braves have gotten to Nola at times… and have also laid some goose eggs. Oddly, he’s better on the road (3.00 ERA vs. 3.53 at Citizens Bank Park), but will face Atlanta at home this week.
- Potential Game 4 starter Kyle Gibson: 3 starts vs. Atlanta.
- Innings pitched: 5.0, 6.0, 5.0
- Runs allowed: 2, 2, 5
- Strikeouts: 8, 4, 9
- Walks: 1, 2, 2
- Hits: 7, 4, 7 (2 homers)
- Gibson sports a 5.05 ERA, but mostly hasn’t pitched that poorly against Atlanta… save for his last outing this season.
Let’s not sugar-coat this: the Philadelphia starting pitching is what will keep them in this series. They are very good and they have challenged Atlanta all year, with most of their starters getting better against the Braves even as Atlanta was running roughshod over the rest of their opposition this Summer.
The Crucial Games 1 and 2
Atlanta has plenty of playoff experience, plus the recent experience of having vanquished the Mets in that vital series on the season’s last weekend. Over that time, of course, they beat all three of the Mets’ best starters.
They will need to do likewise against these Phillies, though here’s the last several game results against them (this went 5-2 for Atlanta):
- Home win (Fried vs. Suarez)
- Home win (Odorizzi vs. Nola)
- Home win (Strider vs. [Falter/bullpen game])
- Road loss (Fried vs. Suarez)
- Road loss (Odorizzi vs. Nola)
- Road win (Wright vs. [Falter/bullpen game])
- Road win (Morton vs. Gibson)
In short, the results were largely dependent on the starting pitching matchup. The Braves did well when their frontline starters were out there (the 1-0 loss for Fried notwithstanding) and struggled when the back end of the rotation was involved.
This is where the 3rd/4th starter quandary comes into play. The Braves need not announce their roster until Tuesday morning… and likely won’t… but the biggest question is about the condition of Spencer Strider and whether he can pitch in Game 3… or a possible Game 4.
Over this season, he’s faced Philadelphia 3 times as a starter and once as a reliever. Here’s the summary:
- 21.1 innings
- 3 runs… total
- 7 total hits (2 homers)
- 34 strikeouts
- 7 walks
Those are game-changer numbers. If he is unable to start in Game 3 or a potential Game 4, that means a substitution of Odorizzi in his place… and thus Atlanta would have two “coin-flip” games between Charlie Morton and Odorizzi (meaning: “do we get the good pitcher or the bad one this time?”).
That’s why Atlanta must defend the home turf well in the first two games: to guard against any possible issues when going on the road… and to guard against Strider’s possible unavilability.
The Braves are going to be coming in well-rested and set up as good as they can be, but there’s also the need to get ramped/amped back up after the long layoff. That’s where the experience should kick in… they will be ready to play.
Offensive Push
Over the last 30 days, the Braves’ offense ranks 8th in baseball with a 9.9 fangraphs rating. The Phillies are right behind them at 8.2 (9th place).
Change that to the past 14 days, though, and while Atlanta is 10th (3.9), the Phillies are 22nd (-6.7).
This accounts for Philadelphia being 4-8 down the season’s stretch run… a result that got them close to being overtaken by a punchless Milwaukee team for the last wildcard slot. This included losses to Braves, but also the Cubs and Nationals… before finishing against Houston.
Good pitching should shut down this team. We saw this vs. St. Louis, too. Thus the Braves won’t need a bunch of run-scoring of their own: they will need ‘just enough’.
On the hitting side, here’s how the Braves have done in these last 2 weeks:
- Olson: 1.165 OPS
- Ozuna: .987 OPS
- Contreras: .855
- In the 700’s: Swanson, Riley, Arcia
- Due? Harris and Acuna
By contrast, here’s the Phillies over the same time period:
- Schwarber: 1.208 OPS
- Marsh: .836
- In the 700’s: Hoskins, Vierling
- In the 600’s: Stot, Realmuto, Harper
That’s… not going to win a lot of games. Advantage Atlanta.
Bullpen Realities
The Phillies have suffered greatly with their relief corps for multiple years in a row. This season, it’s been better, but there’s a notable recent trend worthy of mention:
Over the last 30 days, Philly’s bullpen ERA ranks 27th in baseball (5.00). Atlanta’s stands at 2.17… 2nd ranked.
Regardless of the outcome of the starting pitching, this may (should?) tip the scales in Atlanta’s favor. The Braves have been shutting down the opposition in the late innings for the past month, and Philadelphia’s relief team has not done that.
So the strategy going in should write itself: work deep counts and get the Philadelphia starters out of the games early. The deeper this series goes, the better chance Atlanta will have in finding a reliever with an off-day.
Meanwhile, the Braves have at least 6 end-of-game pitchers ready to do damage: McHugh, Chavez, Lee, Minter, Iglesias, and Jansen. If Philadelphia can’t score early, they may never do so at all.
The Braves hitters will strike out a lot this week. That’s just what they have done all year (3rd highest K rate in the majors at 24.6%… Angels (25.7%) and Pirates (25.3%) were worse).
However, they were also 2nd to the Yankees in homers (243 vs. 254) and had the 9th-best batting average overall (after a terrible first 2 months). So expect the usual kind of offensive outbursts from these guys: a few hits, fewer walks, and a few bombs.
On paper? The Braves win in 4 games.
Next. The Schedule for this Week. dark
The series gets underway in less than 48 hours.