Tossing a very large coin
With a Qualifying Offer in hand, Swanson could then either:
- Take the offer and return to Atlanta for 2023 while then continuing to negotiate a longer term extension. The difference after 2023 would be that he can’t be “QO’d” a second time.
- Reject the offer and take his chances. Mind you, his agent is the same one that misread the market for Freddie Freeman just 7-to-10 months ago.
That decision will hinge on a very important question, though: one that might be getting decided within the next week…
What is Swanson worth?
This is a question you probably don’t want to ask, for over the past 3 seasons to date (2020-present), Swanson’s fWAR is third among all shortstops … sandwiched between San Diego’s $340+ million dollar man Fernando Tatis Jr.and Bogaerts.
The Mets own $340+ million dollar man Francisco Lindor ranks 4th, by the way.
Swanson is just 3 months younger than Lindor, and his agent will likely suggest that he’s now joined these others at the “elite shortstops” table.
But if he does, the Braves will almost certainly recoil at the suggestion of a $25-30 million dollar annual payout and try the QO ploy instead.
Swanson, who’s making $10 million after winning his arbitration case this year, feels like someone who would fit well into the $17-19 million range.
Thus a 6-year deal in the middle of that range ($18 million average annual value) would come to $108 million.
Turner will have to worry about this QO problem, too. So will Bogaerts, if he opts out of his current deal (likely). Correa will not.
So while there could be a “musical chairs” game of rotating shortstops, the fact is that all parties involved might better off staying with their current clubs rather than fretting over draft pick compensation/loss issues… but don’t expect that to happen, either.
Swanson is just going to have to determine for himself the answer to the question that Freddie Freeman failed to resolve in time: how much money do I think I can leave on the table so that I can return to my team?
In Freeman’s case, his better paydays actually would have come by signing back with Atlanta. There’s a chance that the same situation could unfold for Swanson as well.
Hopefully, though, this International draft impasse will end up driving our shortstop back toward home.