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Braves 2021 Player Previews: Will Ozzie Albies Take The Next Step?

By Trent Dickeson

ATLANTA, GEORGIA - OCTOBER 04: Ozzie Albies #1 of the Atlanta Braves beats the throw for an infield single in the first inning in game two of the National League Division Series at SunTrust Park on October 04, 2019 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)
ATLANTA, GEORGIA - OCTOBER 04: Ozzie Albies #1 of the Atlanta Braves beats the throw for an infield single in the first inning in game two of the National League Division Series at SunTrust Park on October 04, 2019 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images) /
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Atlanta Braves Ozzie Albies Fantasy Baseball Draft
Ozzie Albies #1 of the Atlanta Braves, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) /

What Can the Braves Expect from Ozzie Albies in 2021?

We know Ozzie Albies has the talent to bounce back and be a key contributor. Yet, what can we project for him in 2021?

Here are a few of the projection models from FanGraphs:

  • The Bat- .281/.337/.480 25 HRs, 93 Rs, 90 RBIs, 17 SBs, and a 114 wrc+.
  • ATC- .280/.332/.479 24 HRs, 93 Rs, 84 RBIs,14 SBs, and a 113 wrc+.
  • Depth Charts- .283/.337/.494 26 HRs, 96 Rs, 88 RBIs, 16 SBs, and a 111 wrc+.
  • Steamer- .280/.340/.483 25 HRs, 88 Rs, 84 RBIs, 14 SBs, and a 110 wrc+.
  • ZiPS- .286/.335/.506 28 HRs, 105 Rs, 91 RBIs, 18 SBs, and a 114 wrc+.

According to these projections, Ozzie is in line for a .280 season with 25-30 HRs, around 175-185 runs and RBI, and some solid speed on the base paths. That is a really good season. It would easily surpass 3 WAR and probably gets close to 4 WAR.

As Braves fans, we would love to see Ozzie put together this type of season. However, could he do even more?

It is important to note these projection models usually are more conservative in their projections. They also could be brought down slightly because of Ozzie’s 2020 season where some of his advanced metrics were not as good because of a wrist injury hampering him early.

If we take a look, a few things stand out to me. That would be a rise in ground balls and popups and a drop in line drives.

  • 2019- 38.0% GB, 5.3% PU, & 29.3% LD
  • 2020- 40.9% GB, 9.1% PU, & 23.9% LD

Not exactly ideal.

He also had a drop in his exit velocity and hard hit%. There was also negative regression in his K% and BB%.

While these are concerning trends, the wrist injury zapping some of his power and forcing him to feel uncomfortable at the plate is probably to blame. Remember, before he went on the IL early in the season, he actually took an AB left-handed against a left-handed pitcher. That wrist was bothering him.

Even though Ozzie has always been a bit of a free swinger, this may explain the rise in strikeouts and drop in walk rate because he was trying to do too much at the plate to make up for his early-season struggles.

If Ozzie is healthy, one could expect him to be more comfortable at the plate in 2021. This could lead to an even better season than projected.

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