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Braves Analytics: Nick Markakis Just Keeps Hitting

By Trent Dickeson

ATLANTA, GA - AUGUST 5: Nick Markakis #22 of the Atlanta Braves who had previously opted out of the 2020 MLB season looks on prior to the game against the Toronto Blue Jays at Truist Park on August 5, 2020 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)
ATLANTA, GA - AUGUST 5: Nick Markakis #22 of the Atlanta Braves who had previously opted out of the 2020 MLB season looks on prior to the game against the Toronto Blue Jays at Truist Park on August 5, 2020 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images) /
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Nick Markakis #22 of the Atlanta Braves (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
Nick Markakis #22 of the Atlanta Braves (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images) /

Atlanta Braves Nick Markakis – BABIP

Finally, let’s take a look at BABIP. BABIP is batting average on balls in play, or batting average if you remove a player’s home runs and strikeouts. Usually, around 30% of balls put in play end in a positive result for the hitter. So BABIP can be useful in determining if a hitter has been lucky or unlucky.

Nick Markakis is currently carrying a .400 BABIP (!). This is an insanely high BABIP that would suggest Markakis has gotten his fair share of luck so far. With a career BABIP of .317, this can be a solid predictor that his numbers could begin to fall once his BABIP begins to normalize.

Now I know this sounds like a crazy assumption to believe BABIP is really that important in predicting a hitter’s future, but remember Chris Johnson when he was with the Braves? In 2013, Johnson broke out with an .816 OPS and looked like he may be the future at 3rd base. His BABIP in 2013 was .394.

How did Johnson do in 2014? Well, his BABIP only fell to .345, which may not be a big drop, but it did show that Johnson got some luck in 2013. Johnson’s OPS fell to .653 and before long, Johnson was out of Atlanta.

There weren’t big changes in a lot of Johnson’s metrics outside of his BABIP, and when it normalized, Johnson fell off.

Does this mean Markakis will be in trouble if his BABIP falls closer to his career number? No, Markakis is a far better hitter than Chris Johnson, but it does serve as an indication that Markakis may be in line for some slight regression.

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