How would Atlanta Braves fare in Justin Turner’s home run derby proposal?

What’s the verdict

And now we get to the bread and butter of this experiment. On behalf of the eight games in which the Braves went into the eleventh inning or later, I set up eight derbies, pitting the three aforementioned Braves representatives and the three most likely participants from each opposing team in those games.

What ensued were some extremely entertaining showdowns, that, admittedly, would be a blast to watch in a non-virtual game, and would certainly keep fans in their seats.

The Braves were victorious in five of eight of the late-inning derby simulations, including wins over J.D. Martinez and the Red Sox, 2019 Home Run Derby Champion Pete Alonso and the division-winning Mets, and even a very solid trio of Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, and Kyle Schwarber and the Cubs.

Thus, the Braves’ results in these eight match-ups adjusted their overall record and gave them one extra win on the season (going from 4-4 to 5-3 in those eight games), bumping them up to 92-70.

Their performance solidified their wild card spot, bumping the Cardinals out of the playoff picture. Atlanta also received home-field advantage over the Diamondbacks, as they took the season series against them.

If anything, the biggest takeaway from these results is the potential importance that these proposed derbies could hold. Using my simulation as an example, Atlanta’s win count without games going into the eleventh inning or later was only 87, and should they have lost more than four out of eight of these derbies, the Braves would not have made it into postseason play.

Turner’s contentious suggestion may hold more importance than many think come October. Not much would change for teams that are already in a rebuild phase and are not top-loaded with power at the major league level (such as the Marlins or the Tigers), but what about those playoff-worthy clubs that don’t go yard as often as the Dodgers, Astros, or Twins?

For example, here are three clubs who are certainly playoff ready:

• The St. Louis Cardinals, who advanced as far as the NLCS last year, hit only 210 home runs in 2019… three less than the Baltimore Orioles.
• The Tampa Bay Rays, a low-budget, pitcher-heavy organization, have ranked in the bottom 10 in home runs hit the two seasons.
• Atlanta’s rivals, the Philadelphia Phillies, only hit 217 home runs in 2019 and also sit in the bottom 10 for last season.

Braves fans need not fret, however. Ronald Acuña Jr. went deep 41 times last year and already has home run derby experience. Freddie Freeman is coming off of a season with a career-best home run count of 38. And Marcell Ozuna has averaged nearly 30 dingers a season since 2017.

All I can say is, if Justin Turner’s idea ever took off, I would not be worried about the Braves in the slightest.