How would Atlanta Braves fare in Justin Turner’s home run derby proposal?
What do the computers say?
Using the home run derby mini mode, I first crafted an eight-player bracket containing the most statistically powerful, dinger-savvy Braves on the current roster, in order to project which players would most likely be Atlanta’s representatives in real life:
- 1-seed: Ronald Acuña Jr.
- 2-seed: Freddie Freeman
- 3-seed: Marcell Ozuna
- 4-seed: Adam Duvall
- 5-seed: Ozzie Albies
- 6-seed: Travis D’arnaud
- 7-seed: Charlie Culberson
- 8-seed: Dansby Swanson
The system simulated the match-ups and produced a top four of Acuña, Freeman, Ozuna, and Albies. In an epic showdown, Acuña beat Freeman in the finals and established himself as the hypothetical leading representative for the derby, should the Braves find themselves involved in a late-innings game during the regular season.
Following Acuña would be Freddie Freeman, and since Ozuna hit more home runs than Albies in the competition, he would complete the trio of Braves derby participants.
I then switched over to franchise mode, where the system is capable of simulating entire seasons of major league and minor league play. The Braves ended up with a 91-71 record, tied with the St. Louis Cardinals for second place in the NL Wild Card standings (the Diamondbacks retained sole possession of first place for WC going 92-70, and the Mets took the division championship with a 94-68 record).
Within this simulated season, the Braves went 5-1 in games that went into the tenth inning, and 4-4 in games that went into the eleventh inning or later (obviously, the Braves are still capable of late-inning heroics with their 2020 squad).