Atlanta Braves quandry: the problem with Kris Bryant’s defense

The Eye-Opener

When considering which third baseman might be better for the Atlanta Braves between Arenado and Bryant, you might never have guessed this next point would become a factor.

Alex Anthopoulos has been telling anybody who’d listen this off-season that he has money available, that he’s still got more to spend (even after Marcell Ozuna), and that he’s been told to ‘go for it’ (subscription required) this off-season.

All that said… there’s still a barrier involved.

Writing in theAthletic today (paywall/subscription required), Ken Rosenthal had an update on the payroll situation for the NL East contenders.  This…. is interesting:

• Braves cash payroll:  $157.6 million
• Luxury Tax level:  $185.7 million

As we’ve been tracking the numbers this Winter, we have pegged the current Atlanta Braves payroll at roughly $148 million.  How can these numbers get resolved with one another??

There are a few factors that we need to talk about:

• When we traditionally quote payroll values, we typically have used the actual dollars spent in a given season… bonuses are paid out when they are accrued.
• What Rosenthal is quoting for the ‘cash payroll’ number included pro-rated bonus figures that are spread across the length of a contract.  That’s what MLB uses for luxury tax calculations so that teams can’t ‘game’ the system by declaring a bonus in a particular year.
• Then there’s the ‘player benefits’ line item… that’s how we get to $185.7 million.

That ‘benefits’ line that adds insurance and other amenities.  This counts against the luxury tax.

In previous seasons, we’ve completely ignored this, because at the payroll level the Braves lived at, it was a non-factor.

This year?  It’s a factor.

The MLB luxury tax threshold for 2020 is $208 million.  The Braves are now less than $23 million away from that number.

Are they willing to walk up to that ledge?  Quite possibly so for the right player – there was a statement by Anthopoulos that they discussed internally the idea of signing both Donaldson and Ozuna (though the discussion conclusion as stated to Jeff Schultz in theAthletic as “If had signed Josh, we likely don’t sign Ozuna”).

So Here’s the Rub

Salaries for 2020:

• Kris Bryant:  $18,600,000
• Nolan Arenado:  $35,000,000 (with awards incentive bonuses)

Absent any salary relief from the Rockies, that $35 million would throw the Braves over the luxury tax threshold for this coming season by at least $12 million.

The 20% tax on overages would then cost $2.4 million, rendering Arenado’s effective salary $37.4 million… and increasing the cost of any additional acquisitions by 20%.

There’s a problem we didn’t see coming.

Happily, money coming off the books prior to the 2021 season would significantly reduce the Braves’ exposure and allow them to stay under the cap much more easily.

Back to 2020… to that extent, Bryant is actually much more affordable… except perhaps from the perspective of his pitching staff.

So while the defensive metrics would tend to steer Atlanta away from Kris Bryant, the dollars would tend to pull them back in that direction … if, in fact, there’s reason to go after one of these premium players (and that’s still possible).

For Arenado to become a member of the Atlanta Braves, then, one of two things would have to happen:

• Some salaries totaling $12 million or more would have to be transferred to Colorado.  Given the most likely possibilities, that could harm the 2020 club.
• The Braves could wait until close to the trade deadline before engaging Colorado.  At that point, ~60% of the season would be done and the Braves could get Arenado for the $21 million remaining on his 2020 contract… with perhaps a minor salary swap involved then.

Bottom Lines

The second scenario in this Arenado-acquisition adventure seems much more likely (among all of these unlikely acquisition scenarios between he and Bryant).

The Braves need to be sure that when they make a trade deal involving significant prospects that it’s for the right player… and a lot can happen between now and mid-July.

If a pitcher goes down due to injury, then replacing him becomes the immediate priority. If Camargo shocks us and turns into Arenado-light, then perhaps no deal is needed at all.  However…

Steamer projections on fangraphs guess 2020 WAR values for third basemen as follows:

• Arenado 4.9
• Bryant 4.8
• Camargo 1.2

Based on this, the Braves clearly have a lot to gain from grabbing Arenado as soon as possible… or perhaps Bryant… though as noted, the numbers suggest that his defense may not be up to the task.

It’s a tough call… but if the Atlanta Braves are truly ‘going for it’, they probably ought to focus their eyes on Denver (despite earlier misgivings posed by this writer).  Bryant is clearly elite on offense… but a big liability on defense.