Atlanta Braves quandry: the problem with Kris Bryant’s defense

All the Numbers

First, the raw figures, with the ‘counting figures’ among them unscaled.

The last 2 rows represent 2 key offensive stats (both are scaled for league and park effects), these being wRC+ and OPS+.

In case you’re not familiar with these:

• wRC+ is a means of determining how well a player creates runs by their offensive output, with 100 being league average.  110 means ‘10% better than league average’.  This value is scaled to avoid ballpark and league advantages.
• OPS+ is the now-familiar On-base-average-Plus-Slugging-percentage, but also scaled to avoid ballpark and league advantages… thus helpful to reduce Arenado’s clear advantages.

Now the same data, but with the counting stats upscaled to a 1400 inning equivalency.  The bold values are notable… we’ll discuss them in a moment.

There’s a lot of numbers here… let’s boil this down to the ones that matter the most:  there are several of these that point in the same direction.

Note the Out Of Zone (OOZ) plays first.  Bryant is clearly – and consistently – behind the other as here.  Again: these are the plays in which a fielder was roaming outside of his normal area to produce an out.

These effectively represent ‘extra outs’ that a pitcher might not have received otherwise.  They will reduce base-runner opportunities and shorten innings… there’s no downside to them.

Over the course of the 2 seasons, Arenado provided his pitchers with 32 extra outs (in the scaled numbers) beyond those that Bryant was able to muster.

That doesn’t sound like a lot… roughly 1 every 2 weeks… but they do add up.

Arenado, Rockie Ranger

This also speaks of the range of the player around third base… and this is where we should now look at the Defensive Runs Saved.

• Arenado in 2018-19:  (scaled) +13.6
• Bryant in 2018-19:  (scaled) -14.3

That’s a big disparity… Arenado saves his pitchers runs.  Bryant costs his pitchers runs… and there’s nearly a 28 run gap between the pair over the course of 2 full seasons of data.

Heck, even Camargo was credited with a sizable DRS in his relatively limited time at third in 2018.

There are other notable metrics on this chart – primarily the UZR numbers and the wrapped-up total defensive score that fangraphs produced for us.

The bottom line is what we already knew:  Arenado is a premier defender at third base and Kris Bryant is much closer to the bottom.  What stands out, though, is just how far apart they are.

The difference?  It’s about the range of each player.  Anybody can knock a ball down when it’s hit right at them.  The trick is how well a hot-corner guy can make a play – and potentially an out – when ranging out of his normal playing zone.

In the specific case of third base, balls ripped down the foul line turn into doubles if they aren’t stopped.  They in turn cost a team extra runs.  Arenado is better at defending against these – Bryant is not.  That very likely accounts for much of the difference here since both clearly make the more routine plays well enough.

When you consider the relative offensive contributions of these players (Arenado and Bryant specifically), it’s essentially a wash:  both perform very well – elite-level, even.

However, once you take that offense and then subtract out when Bryant costs a team defensively… now you’re looking at something that’s probably a lot closer to what Johan Camargo might provide since he’s a much better defender (assuming Camargo is his 2018 self… which isn’t necessarily a given).

Right away, you’d have to wonder if Bryant would be worth acquiring since Camargo (and Riley) are already available in house.  To be fair, you’d be counting on their projected abilities as opposed to Bryant’s proven, consistent abilities.

Still:  it’s advantage Arenado thanks to defense.  Clearly.

But wait… it’s not all that cut-and-dried.