Atlanta Braves start spending with a bang of their own trash can

Speculation Estimation Situation

So at this point, the Atlanta Braves are probably sitting on a payroll of $98 million and change, with real needs at third base, the rotation, and catcher still out there.  That much is about as accurate as we can make it right now.

Assuming the addition of 3 free agent players, then that reduces the $98.2 million to $96.5 million thanks to a reduction of three $575K minimal-salary guys.  So…

• With a $130 million limit, there’s $28 million remaining to spend
• With a $135 million limit, there’s $33 million remaining to spend
• With a $140 million limit, there’s $38 million remaining to spend
• With a $145 million limit, there’s $43 million remaining to spend
• With a $150 million limit, there’s $48 million remaining to spend

You’d probably have to assume that roughly $5 million will be withheld from whatever the actual limit is to allow for trade deadline actions… but we won’t concern ourselves with that right now.

So with this we’ll have something akin to…

• The Coach class payroll (the budget plan)
• The Business Class payroll
• The First Class payroll (the budget buster)

So how much is really available?  Prepare for reckless speculation ahead… 

There are two opposing indicators at work here:

• The Liberty Media numbers suggesting profitability and debt concerns
  • This would tend to rule out the biggest number(s)
• The fact that Anthopoulos went out essentially on Day 1 and inked the most expensive reliever he could find.
  • This would tend to rule out the smallest number(s)

Maybe $140 million then??  Business Class?  That would be equivalent to last year… and a fairly safe number for this exercise.

Shopping Trip

So what can you buy for $38 million?  Let’s try 3 different Christmas packages (all numbers estimated):

PACKAGE 1

• Donaldson ($25 million)
• Bumgarner ($17 million)
• A catcher off the bottom of the list for $1.5 million.  All glove, no bat.
• Unfortunately, that’s over-budget by close to $5m

PACKAGE 2

• Moustakas ($10 million)
• Cole Hamels ($15 million)
• Grandall ($18 million)
• Also over budget… but you might push the numbers a bit for these combos.

PACKAGE 3

• Donaldson ($25 million)
• Grandall ($18 million)
• go with the pitching staff already in house.
• Still pushing that $140m number a bit hard

As you can see, the Donaldson numbers tend to dominate the remaining (speculated) budget, if the team goes that direction.  So if the Braves happen to re-sign him in the next few weeks, it may be a sign that the ‘First Class’ budget is alive and well.

On the flip side, getting Moustakas doesn’t mean (at all) that the team is hosed, but it would suggest a more measured approach.  No wonder there’s a report out now indicating some interest.

Of course in all of this, there’s no consideration for possible trade deals that might create more payroll space along the way… and don’t be surprised if that happens.

Regardless, you could reasonably infer that the Will Smith signing could signal some confidence that monies will be available… one way or another.  Your mileage may vary.

As we continue through this off-season, we’ll continue to update these numbers as events warrant.