Atlanta Braves start spending with a bang of their own trash can

Back to the Front

Let’s start where we did in that prior report:  with the arbitration-eligible players on the roster.

I had assumed 8 of these players, with a estimated total payroll outlay of $27.2 million to be required [figure corrected because… math.  Additional updates/corrections follow].

This covers Greene, Foltynewicz, Culberson, Duvall, Swanson, Jackson, Dayton, and Camargo.  I am assuming that John Ryan Murphy will be non-tendered… if for no other reason than to gain a slot on the 40-man roster.

That leaves the contracted players and the pre-arbitration guys with less than 3 years of service time.  There have been a couple of changes, including an assumption that I’m now less confident about.

• Freeman:  $22 million
• Albies:  $1 million
• Acuna:  $1 million
• Inciarte:  $7.5 million
• Markakis:  $4 million
• Flowers:  $4 million
• O’Day:  $3.25 million*
• Melancon:  $14 million
• Will Smith:  $13 million

These add to a total of $69.75 million, or $96.95 million when counting the arbitration guys.  That’s 17 total players… with 9 to go (assuming that the 26-man active roster proposal is implemented).

* – per Braves Options Guy:  +$1 million in deferred compensation from prior contract.

We’ll add some ‘placeholders’ for those final 9 slots as before and assign an average $575K salary for those… $5.175 million, which brings us to approximately $102.125 million before doing anything else aggressive in the market.  I’ll round that down to $102 million.

The rest from here will depend on where the payroll line is to be drawn.  While the original report guessed $150 million… a number that seemed quite plausible then, particularly now that we know that final 2019 spending (re: Tucker) was $144 million.

After that earning report, though… anything ranging between $130 million and $150 million might be in sight… with probabilities now leaning toward the lower end of that scale.

So after this Will Smith signing, let’s see where the team is at and where things might go from here.