Atlanta Braves pitcher search: is the best on the board worth the move?
By Fred Owens
Cole Hamels
Agent: John Boggs
Qualifying Offer: Unlikely. Hamels would grab it and the Cubs can’t afford it.
Cole Hamels left the Phillies in search of another ring, but that ring still eludes him. The Cubs acquired him from Texas in 2018 for their stretch run, and he delivered as expected, throwing 76 1/3 innings with a 2.36 ERA and striking out 74.
The Cubs liked that well enough to pick up his $20M option for this season, and he put similar number to those he’s recorded sin 2013 – 3.82 ERA, 4.09 FIP, and about 9 K/9– but threw just 142 2/3 innings due to missing five-week with an oblique strain and all of September with left shoulder fatigue.
Hamels pitches at 36 years of age in 2019 and told the Athletic ($) he’d like to pitch for the Cubs again. I don’t expect that to happen, new manager on board (Congrats to David Ross) and $182M (including benefits costs) on the books with an owner who will no longer pay for mistakes, probably means they pass.
He never blew batters away with velocity, and he’s remained remarkably constant throughout his career. The oblique strain and shoulder tiredness dropped his fastball and cutter velocity by one run, but his three off-speed pitches didn’t change. Hamels is still posting a 23% K rate (9.1 / 9) and a 47% GB rate and was worth 2.5 fWAR last season good enough for #40 on the list of top starters, but he lacked enough innings to qualify.
Hamels looks a little older now than when I suggested the Atlanta Braves go after him six years ago, but he remains a well above average starting pitcher who I’d happily hand the ball to in two or three of a postseason series.
He’s a smart pitcher who cold mentor Fried and Newcomb while stabilizing the rotation. I expect him to get two years at a low AAV, maybe two years and $20M with an option. I also expect the Phillies to work hard to bring him home.
Jake Odorizzi
Agents: Excel Sports Management
Qualifying offer: Expected
Jake Odorizzi is one of many arms acquired by the Rays, groomed until they are about to get expensive then traded for more prospects.
This prospect looks more of a warm body that a star because Odorizzi didn’t pitch well for Tampa. He didn’t pitch well for the Twins in 2018 either, but 2019 became his breakout year.
Nothing in the 29-year old righty’s pitch arsenal changed, velocity and pitch selection remained constant for all pitches; everything looked at says there’s nothing different except his BAbip against, and that went up.
Our friends over at Puckett’s Pond hit one the apparent answer: he was in the zone, walked outside for fresh air and couldn’t get back in:
"In his first 13 starts of the season, Odorizzi went 9-2 and posted an absurd 1.92 ERA. What’s even more impressive where his peripheral numbers, holding opponents to a .186 batting average while issuing just 15 walks in 70 1/3 innings. To put it into perspective, the 1.91 walks per nine innings ratio in that stretch was nearly two walks lower than the 3.8 BB/9 he posted in 2018. Odorizzi came back to reality in his final 17 starts, posting a 6-5 record, but also seeing his ERA jump to 4.77 and his BB/9 rise to 3.14 over the final three months."
That makes Odorizzi look like a number three starter who pitched unconscious for three months then woke up.
What he’s worth depends on how you want to use him and want to expect in return. His 27% K rate is second highest of the field unless you’re considering giving Rich Hill a cane and a contract. That and age are on his side.
If Ordorizzi had pitched enough innings to qualify for the Cy Young award, he’d fall in at #18 in Fangraphs’ list of the top starters, but he threw 159 innings in his 30 starts.
If you believe he’s the next Jake Arrieta circa 2014-2016, emerging from his chrysalis for three years of joyful flight, give him three years and $45M with an option.