Atlanta Braves pitcher search: is the best on the board worth the move?

The Atlanta Braves and the field

The list of free agents shown of MLB Trade Rumors is long, and in a way, misleading. All listed pitchers are officially available free-agents, with the restrictions noted, but many didn’t pitch enough innings this season; two of them haven’t pitched in over a year.

Others pitched but are past their sell-by date, or had ERAs that looked like a Texas speed limit, and some were never that good but managed to hang around because quality starters are, and have been, in short supply.

After a couple of passes to qualify pitchers based on innings pitched, ERA, and other peripherals, I eliminated those I didn’t see as an upgrade over Julio Teheran. I also rejected Adam Wainwright, who will remain a Cardinal, or we’ll see their front-office stormed by angry fans.

The list doesn’t include Garret Cole. Cole wants a big stage, Maybe he’d sign here if it were 1995, but today Atlanta isn’t that stage.

Arte Moreno wants Cole to come home to California, told Bill Shanklin payroll would increase (Twitter link), and told Joe Maddon he’s going to spend money (Athletic link $). Last week Billy Eppler began dumping under-performing players to add space.

We saw what Moreno gave Albert Pujols because he wanted him. I expect the same determination to land Cole in Anaheim.

I’ve attempted to address known knocks on all of these pitchers, so some descriptions are longer than others. That doesn’t indicate favoritism. Instead, it’s an attempt to provide clarity.

Here with the list in (almost) alphabetical order, beginning with a tall lefty who – rumor has it – wants to pitch in Atlanta.

Madison Bumgarner

Agents: VC Sports Group

Qualifying offer: Expected 

Madison Bumgarner and the Atlanta Braves appeared in the same paragraph of baseball publication last year as New York and Yankees.

Although I can’t remember the Giants without him, Bumgarner plays at 30 years old next season. I won’t bore you with his postseason history; I did that last year. A dirt-bike accident in 2017 caused people to take cast a jaundiced eye on his performance since then.

He returned and pitched well for two months ( 56 1/3 IP, 2.78 ERA, 53 K, 11 walks) before September turned into purgatory. He lost four consecutive nightmares that resulted in a  4.91 ERA in 25 2/3 IP.  A similar pattern in 2018; he pitched to a 2.68 ERA in 100 2/3 IP from June 5 through August 28, then September, and in five starts totaling 29 innings, his ERA jumped to 5.28.

In 2019, Bumgarner made 34 starts and threw .200+ innings for the first time since 2016, but classic Bumgarner appeared only in July, against winning teams and the Marlins.

He pitched to a 3.75 ERA against teams over 500 and 4.10 ERA against those under 500.  He ended the season with a 3.90 ERA and provided 3.2 fWAR, good for #19 on Fangraphs list of 58 qualified starters

When his name comes up, someone always says he lost velocity this season. That’s not accurate. His velocity peaked in 2015, and since 2016, his velocity remained constant across all pitches.

Data from Pitch Info Solutions via Fangraphs

Pitch Info shows he added a split and change this year and abandoned his curve.

Park factors are confusing, Oracle Park has a five-year park factor  (though 2018 of 96 (tied #24), a three-year park factor of 94 (#29), and for 2018, the park factor was 101 (#14 and slightly hitter favorable.

What isn’t confusing is Bumgarner’s home/road splits, which show his ERA one-run higher on the road. In 2018, that jumped to three runs better at home, but he pitched to a 1.63 at home that season while his road ERA remained constant.

How much of that is pitching to the ballpark and not adjusting on the road I can’t say. The best I can do is add a matrix of ballpark ERAs for all pitchers at the end.