Will the Atlanta Braves strike a deal with Toronto for Stroman or Giles?

Finding a comparable trade

I set out to find a trade for a basis for comparison to if we acquired Stroman and Giles. There were a few candidates, but I settled on this one as being comparable to the package that I think we’d have to give up.

In July 2010, Cliff Lee was traded from the Seattle Mariners with reliever Mark Lowe to the Texas Rangers for Matt Lawson, Blake Beavan, Josh Lueke and Justin Smoak.

Cliff Lee at this point in his career was three years older than Stroman, but had a better track record with a Cy Young under his belt.

Both 2010 Lee and Stroman have had their injury issues. Salaries were similar in Lee’s 9 million to Stroman’s 7.4 million. The difference was that Lee was a rental and Stroman and Giles both have a year of team control.

So in this scenario, Lee was worth 17.1 WAR and Mark Lowe, who came with two years of team control was worth 0.1 WAR for a total of 17.2 WAR.

Stroman is worth 13.2 WAR and Giles, 7.1 WAR, totaling 20.3 WAR.

If you’re into sabermetrics, the Braves would have to make up that gap in value, plus the perceived price of extra control.

Looking at the prospects the Texas Rangers included, power prospect Justin Smoak was considered to  next version of Mark Teixiera. He was ranked as the #16 prospect in all of baseball according to fan graphs.

Blake Beavan was a 2007 first round draft choice that put up respectable minor league numbers. He was big 6-7, 255 pounds, and as the 17th choice in the draft, had developed into a major league ready starting pitching prospect.

Josh Lueke, was a well regarded prospect that put up great numbers in the minors with a 96mph fastball. He was mostly used as a reliever.

Matt Lawson, an infielder, wasn’t really a prospect, but he was a solid ballplayer, posting a 2009 season in High-A ball of .293 with 10HR and 57 RBI.

At the time, this was a solid package of talent.