Rumor: Atlanta Braves may have tough deal to make for Madison Bumgarner

What the Clause Buys Him

It’s a couple of things:  veto power and what I’ll call ‘cash considerations’.

Bumgarner’s deal with San Francisco was seen as very team-favorable at the time.  As his legend grew (and exploded) during the 2014 World Series (MVP, 0.43 ERA in 21 innings; also MVP during the NLCS with 1.72 ERA in 15.2 innings), that value became all too obvious.

In the past couple of years, that has been ramped back a bit as he recovered from various injuries… some of them by his own making.

But even with options, the 29-year-old (he’ll be 30 on the day after the trade deadline) has earned “just” $57.5 million during his 9-year career through 2019.

That’s still a lot, of course, but this coming trade does allow him to extract an extra $1 million or so to waive the no-trade clause… a nice addition for a pitcher who “the market” would suggest should be making something in the mid-to-upper $20’s by now.

He’s getting $12 million this season.

Here in 2019, MadBum is more-or-less back to pitching well:  a 3.99 ERA over 8 starts and nearly 50 innings.  That gives him an ERA+ score of 102… barely over ‘average’ and well behind his career mark of 122.

His problem this season has been the home run ball, giving up almost exactly 1 over every 9 innings pitched.  However, his walk rate is actually at a career low of 1.4 and strikeouts are in line with career norms… actually a tick better than the average.

That home run issue could play better in some parks than others… and given that this is his “walk” year, it would probably be in his own interests to steer a trade in the direction of a ballpark that’s a bit friendlier to pitchers – like his current home is.

Let’s look at how these ballpark considerations might play.