Atlanta Braves: Looking at the projections for Sean Newcomb in 2019
Which version will we see more of in 2019?
The near no-hit wonder or the one who regularly struggles with the free pass?
It might not be pleasant to think about, but given Newcomb’s crumbling down the stretch last year (4.58 ERA, 1.42 WHIP in the second half) and continued struggles this spring, it doesn’t seem as if a huge turnaround is a reasonable thing to expect.
Control problems are hard to escape at this level, and they’ve followed Newcomb since his days as a minor leaguer.
It’s also true that his repertoire as a pitcher is still evolving: he threw a significantly higher percentage of changeups and a lower percentage of curveballs in 2018, but actually saw a decrease in whiff rates of both.
Furthermore, it’s important to keep in mind the situation surrounding Newcomb.
Kyle Wright, Max Fried, Touki Toussaint and many others are chomping at the bit for spots in the major league rotation. Newcomb’s slight edge in experience isn’t necessarily going to save him in this race.
GM Alex Anthopoulos not-so-subtly made that distinction earlier this week:
"@sportsandra Alex Anthopoulos on #Braves rotation “we’re gonna surprise people the way we break camp,we’re taking the best guys, we don’t care how much time you have..if you throw strikes & have stuff you’ll get the ball”"
If that doesn’t sound like a comment that spells bad news for Newcomb…
The competition is there. The question now is, will his production be?
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I think it’s reasonable to expect Newcomb to potentially see some time in the minors this year, possibly even to start the season, if Anthopoulos’ comments hold true (would anybody really be that surprised if Wright, Fried and Toussaint all made the Opening Day roster ahead of Newk?).
As much as we’d all like to see him make a huge leap in his third season the way Mike Foltynewicz did, it seems as though he has more to overcome.
It’s hard to guess against the projections, though on the positive side, I’ll say that I could see Newcomb trimming a bit more off his walk rate (maybe down to around 4.0 BB/9, hopefully less) and keeping his ERA in the mid-to-upper 3.00’s (thanks especially to a strong defense). It’s difficult to envision much better than that.
Next. Braves vs. Brewers... off the field. dark
As the old adage goes, however, “That is why we play the games.” They aren’t won and lost on projections, but on performance. And Sean Newcomb’s performance in 2019 will be very important to him, and the team.