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Atlanta Braves: Looking at the projections for Sean Newcomb in 2019

By Daniel Rasmussen

LAKE BUENA VISTA, FLORIDA - MARCH 03: Sean Newcomb #15 of the Atlanta Braves pitches in the second inning against the Miami Marlins during the Grapefruit League spring training game at Champion Stadium on March 03, 2019 in Lake Buena Vista, Florida. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)
LAKE BUENA VISTA, FLORIDA - MARCH 03: Sean Newcomb #15 of the Atlanta Braves pitches in the second inning against the Miami Marlins during the Grapefruit League spring training game at Champion Stadium on March 03, 2019 in Lake Buena Vista, Florida. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images) /
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NEW YORK, NY – SEPTEMBER 26: Sean Newcomb #15 of the Atlanta Braves delivers a pitch in the fifth inning against the New York Mets on September 26,2018 at Citi Field in the Flushing neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York City. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY – SEPTEMBER 26: Sean Newcomb #15 of the Atlanta Braves delivers a pitch in the fifth inning against the New York Mets on September 26,2018 at Citi Field in the Flushing neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York City. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images) /

2019 Projections for Sean Newcomb

Sean Newcomb’s high ceiling/low floor makeup as a pitcher is evident to those who have watched him in Atlanta for the last two years. What do the projections say about 2019?  Here’s 4 of them:

Baseball Reference has Newcomb finishing with an ERA of 3.93 (almost identical to 2018’s 3.90) and a 4.2 BB/9, slightly better than a season ago. They also project a WHIP of 1.34, which is again nearly spot-on to last year’s average.

Steamer also projects – over 23 games started – that walks will continue to be a problem for Newcomb (4.38 per 9 innings) and that the ERA will actually increase (4.17), though they are more bullish on his strikeout capability for 2019, projecting a rise in Newk’s K/9 to 9.24.

Fantrax refers to Newcomb’s projected 2019 as a year in which he will be a “WHIP liability”, though he should average about a strikeout per inning pitched. They also add that given his control issues that reaching 180 innings pitched is a “stretch” (this is a common thought in most projections).

Finally, Rotochamp also sees Newcomb with an ERA north of 4.00, a WHIP around the same as last year (1.39) and far fewer than 180 innings pitched (161).

These projections aren’t exactly on the optimistic side of things, but it’s worth pointing out – again – that Sean Newcomb’s best baseball is likely ahead of him.He’s still not yet 26 years old, after all.

The walks might always be a problem, but it’s at least worth keeping an open mind when you remember that the Braves have made a change in pitching coach, bringing in Rick Kranitz. Perhaps a new voice could be a game-changer for Newcomb’s career.

Having looked at the projections, what is a reasonable expectation for Braves fans regarding Newcomb in 2019?

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