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Will Atlanta Braves really benefit from J.T. Realmuto?

By Benjamin Chase

SEATTLE, WA - APRIL 19: Catcher J.T. Realmuto #11 of the Miami Marlins walks back to home plate during a game Seattle Mariners at Safeco Field on April 19, 2017 in Seattle, Washington. The Mariners won 10-5. (Photo by Stephen Brashear/Getty Images)
SEATTLE, WA - APRIL 19: Catcher J.T. Realmuto #11 of the Miami Marlins walks back to home plate during a game Seattle Mariners at Safeco Field on April 19, 2017 in Seattle, Washington. The Mariners won 10-5. (Photo by Stephen Brashear/Getty Images) /
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Atlanta Braves
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The cost

This comes down to more than just the cost in players in trade, but that definitely comes into play. Let’s look at all the costs…

Realmuto’s contract

Realmuto settled with the Marlins for $5.9 million this season in his second year of arbitration. He still has one more season of arbitration, and he’s estimated to be into 8 figures for his 2020 salary, so the cost over the next two seasons in salary will be in the range of $16-20 million.

The Marlins have been adamant that they do not want to allow for a negotiating window with Realmuto for an extension as part of a trade. Certainly, the Atlanta Braves could negotiate as soon as he was on board, but it’s better to assume two seasons of control.

Currently, the Atlanta Braves have both Tyler Flowers and Brian McCann under contract for a total of $6 million in 2019. Flowers has a $6 million option for 2020 currently. So, adding a second catcher to Flowers in 2020 at a similar salary to McCann, a catching pair for the next two seasons would cost $14 million. Even doubling McCann’s salary for the second catcher would bring the total to $16 million for the pair.

Trade cost

We’ve all seen the names bandied around – Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, Ian Anderson, Mike Soroka, and more. Those are the types of names you expect to headline a deal for a star player. However, you expect ONE of them to headline such a deal (and Albies, well, that’s just laughable). The Marlins have been notably asking for multiple big names.

Alex Anthopolous has stated this offseason that one of the reasons for the Atlanta Braves lack of movement is that teams see the Braves’ depth of pitching as a reason to de-value their prospects when making an offer, and that’s seemingly the issue here as well.

In a piece that will be out tomorrow, I’ve been tabulating the appearances of Braves prospects on top 100 lists, and at present, while the Braves don’t have a prospect averaging out as a top 20 prospect, they have six averaging out as a top-50 prospect. Asking for two top-50 prospects would be a quite steep price, when most teams around the game cannot even offer you that (or will not offer it for sure).

Opportunity cost

As the offseason has crept through, I’ve had the chance to talk with many excellent minds and eyes around the game. One thing that you’ll see in tomorrow’s rankings, both in my updated Braves prospect rankings and my overall rankings over at Call to the Pen is that those conversations along with further video study have significantly improved the stock of both William Contreras and Alex Jackson.

While many know Contreras is inching his way up the Braves prospect list and could be a top 2-3 prospect by the end of the year with moves and graduations, Jackson getting love after a rough 2018 at the plate is something that people have been scant to do.

Jackson made some major strides behind the plate in 2018. In fact, in his limited time at AAA, he showed well enough to rank 20th among Baseball Prospectus’ Fielding Runs Above Average statistic for AAA catchers in 2018.

The ability for Jackson to slide into that second catcher role for minimal cost and provide power in 2020 would be absolutely huge, and more than a few scouts strongly believe that the Atlanta Braves believe that Contreras could be ready to take over the catching job by mid-2020.

Having Realmuto on board obviously doesn’t allow either prospect a chance to get time at the big league level.

Of course, the big argument most will have is the added numbers, but are they really that drastic? Let’s look at that next….

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