Atlanta Braves free agent profile: Adam Ottavino
Cost
MLB Trade Rumors ranked Adam Ottavino 21st in their rankings of the top 50 free agents available. They had him projected to receive a 3-year, $30 million deal, averaging $10 million per season.
Ottavino is going to be 33 years old on Opening Day, so a 3-year contract would cover his age 33, 34, and 35 seasons.
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One of the things that does raise some questions with Ottavino is his pitch mix. Ottavino leans very hard on his slider. He nearly eliminated his four-seam fastball in 2018 with the emergence of his cutter and more heavy usage of his sinker over his four-seam fastball.
However, of any pitch he throws, the slider (46.3%) is used nearly 8% more than any other pitch (the sinker is used 38.5%). The incredible thing is that while many believe it’s due to his slider being incredibly effective, when you take it by per-100 pitches thrown, his slider was his third-most-effective pitch in 2018, with his four-seam fastball and two-seam fastball both having better rankings per 100 pitches.
The stress that such heavy usage of a slider can have on an arm is worrisome. Ottavino ranked 6th in all of baseball in 2018 in slider percentage of pitchers who threw at least 50 innings. If you add up the last 5 seasons, he’s used his slider the 5th-most of any pitcher in baseball.
Ottavino is 6’5″ and 220 pounds with a repeatable delivery, so it’s that his delivery presents extra stress on his arm, but at age 33, it’d be much better to give him something like a 2-year, $25 million deal with big incentives based on games finished if Ottavino would end up the closer for the Atlanta Braves.
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While Ottavino has impressive “fantasy” results, he could be a concern for health due to his age and pitch mix, making him a possible poor choice for the Atlanta Braves.