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Atlanta Braves Morning Chop: 2018 games results with the Dodgers

By Alan Carpenter

ATLANTA, GA - JULY 28: Third baseman Johan Camargo #17 of the Atlanta Braves runs to third base after hitting a solo home run in the seventh inning during the game against the Los Angeles Dodgers at SunTrust Park on July 28, 2018 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Mike Zarrilli/Getty Images)
ATLANTA, GA - JULY 28: Third baseman Johan Camargo #17 of the Atlanta Braves runs to third base after hitting a solo home run in the seventh inning during the game against the Los Angeles Dodgers at SunTrust Park on July 28, 2018 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Mike Zarrilli/Getty Images) /
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ATLANTA, GA – JULY 27: Clayton Kershaw #22 of the Los Angeles Dodgers throws a second inning pitch against the Atlanta Braves at SunTrust Park on July 27, 2018 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Scott Cunningham/Getty Images)
ATLANTA, GA – JULY 27: Clayton Kershaw #22 of the Los Angeles Dodgers throws a second inning pitch against the Atlanta Braves at SunTrust Park on July 27, 2018 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Scott Cunningham/Getty Images) /

July 27, 4-1 Dodgers

  • VENUE:  SUNTRUST PARK
  • TIME/DAY:  FRIDAY, 7:35PM
  • STARTERS:
    • MIKE FOLTYNEWICZ
    • CLAYTON KERSHAW

This was the matchup we wanted to see, though it faltered a bit earlier than we might have hoped.

This was mostly about Kershaw being Kershaw:  7.2 innings, 8K, no walks, 6 hits, and 1 earned run.

That run was manufactured after a Nick Markakis double, Kurt Suzuki short single and a groundout by Ender Inciarte.  But that’s not telling everything.

In that (2nd) inning, Johan Camargo hit a comebacker that caught Markakis in a run-down, eventually getting him out while the runners went to second and third.  So the Braves still had things set up with only 1 out.

The groundout did score Suzuki, but Kershaw then got Dansby Swanson looking to get out of the jam.

These are the problems when facing Kershaw:

  • He’s best with runners in scoring position (teams slug 100 points less)… though the OBP is higher (.290 vs. .248 when bases are empty)
  • He’s most often ahead in the count.  3 ball counts only for less than 23 innings, 0-1/0-2/1-2 for also 198 innings.
  • Pitch count won’t matter for this horse… so look for the Braves to try and exploit the first good pitch they see… if they can handle the movement on his fastball.
  • Trouble is, he throws the fastball this year with nearly equal frequency as his slider (40.8% vs. 42.3%).  Then there’s the hammer curve (16.4%)
  • This could be happening due to health or age… his fastball velocity is down significantly this year (90.9 mph) over years past (92.7, 93.1, 93.6 back to 2015).
  • A 2.73 ERA in 161 innings still shows he’s their ace.

Folty Faltered

A homer to start the third inning from Alex Verdugo started their scoring. Yasmany Grandal continued with another lead-off bomb.

After the 2nd homer, Folty had trouble getting back on track:  Walk, K, double, flyout, single (Kershaw).  That last hit was the damaging one – 2 runs scored and put the Braves down 4-1.

The Braves bullpen did well enough:  Venters/Carle/Biddle/Minter combined for 4 innings, 1 hit, 4 walks (yeah, I know), 4 strikeouts, and no runs scored.

Kenley Jansen saved the game over 4 outs… 2 strikeouts and the offense didn’t hurt him at all.  Again:  Atlanta cannot allow themselves to sit back and try to score late in games… that simply won’t work against the Dodgers, given this bullpen.

Turns out that this late-inning heroics thing is something of a myth:

  • Braves’ scoring in 1st 3 innings:  237
  • Middle 3 innings:  244
  • Final 3 innings:  268

Yes – it’s higher, but only about 7-8% higher than the median.  That’s good, for it will be necessary for Atlanta to score early and often.  If any game becomes a bullpen vs. bullpen contest, the pendulum swings to the Dodgers’ favor.

Nick Markakis was 2 for 4 on the night.  Camargo and Acuna combined for 5 strikeouts.

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