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Are the Atlanta Braves’ demons of the Adam Wainwright trade finally exorcised?

By Alan Carpenter

Jun 1, 2017; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Adam Wainwright (50) pitches during the third inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
Jun 1, 2017; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Adam Wainwright (50) pitches during the third inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports /
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Jun 8, 2017; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves first baseman Matt Adams (18) high fives with team mates after scoring a run against the Philadelphia Phillies during the sixth inning at SunTrust Park. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Jun 8, 2017; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves first baseman Matt Adams (18) high fives with team mates after scoring a run against the Philadelphia Phillies during the sixth inning at SunTrust Park. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports /

Still Counting Ballots from Rural areas

This current surplus of 3.0 WAR for the most recent deals clearly doesn’t yet make up for the 31.8 fWAR deficit from the Wainwright deal, but there’s definitely reason to believe that the numbers are trending strongly in the Braves’ favor in the future.

To reduce the moving parts a bit, here is what we can reasonably project:

  • Inciarte is signed through 2021.  A conservative estimate of 3 WAR per year, plus another 2 for 2017 gives him 14.  He is on pace to exceed 4.0 in 2017.
  • Swanson is under team control through 2022.  His projection is more difficult,  but a 2 WAR per season average seems attainable:  that’s 12, counting this season (currently at break even).
  • Projections for Adams and Garcia are even more challenging, but there’s probably a 95% chance that Garcia will be moved for a top-to-premium prospect by the end of July. Let’s assign him a 0.5 WAR add-on before then.
  • Adams… might or might not be traded.  He’s still probably good for another 0.5 WAR at least.
  • This cannot hope to guess what a new trade acquisition might also add in the future.

More from Tomahawk Take

So there’s a conservative projection of 27 additional WAR, plus the known 3.0 boost thus far.  30 fWAR total… which is darn close to that Wainwright deficit already… before any future/unknown trade considerations.

Yes… St. Louis got 2 world titles in the Wainwright era (missing 2 others) and the Braves failed to advance in the playoffs with Drew included.  I get that.  Regardless of how the numbers eventually work out, St. Louis fans would be right in pointing that out.  Repeatedly.

Of course, the Braves’ story for these recent deals with the Cardinals has yet to be written.

So all that said… yes:  there’s still some significant work to do, but this trio of deals that Atlanta has pulled off at the expense of John Mozeliak may combine so that fans may avoiding cringing every time that the name ‘Adam Wainwright’ comes up.

Next: Walk-off This Way

Also… it didn’t escape our attention that St. Louis thinks they now need a bat… like the one they traded away… or that the name of that bat includes mention of ‘Adam’.  Irony can be cruel.

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