Are the Atlanta Braves’ demons of the Adam Wainwright trade finally exorcised?
Figure this out
If you boil down the trade in terms of strict on-field value, it comes down to something like this:
- J.D. Drew – 8.6 fWAR
- Eli Marrero – 1.7
- Adam Wainwright – 39.4
- Jason Marquis – 2.0*
- Ray King – 0.7
* – then Marquis scored 3.1 for the Cubs in the 2 seasons after leaving the Cardinals, so maybe that number is a bit high?
So that score is… 10.3 for the Braves… 42.1 for the Cardinals. Ouch.
Getting Back to Square?
In the past few years, though, the tables might have turned a bit – with John Hart and John Coppolella getting back at the Cardinals in a big way.
- Nov 2014. Jason Heyward and Jordan Walden go to the Cardinals for Shelby Miller and Tyrell Jenkins. “A blockbuster in every sense of the word”, wrote MLBTR.
- Dec 2016. Braves and Cardinals hook up to acquire starter Jaime Garcia for a package of Luke Dykstra, Chris Ellis, and John Gant.
- May 2017. In a very surprising move, Matt Adams – a man awkwardly positioned on the end of the St. Louis bench is obtained for Yuan Jepez and cash.
It also cannot escape notice in this calculus that the biggest coup of all was indirectly tied to St. Louis as well: the Dec 2015 deal that sent Shelby Miller to Arizona for Ender Inciarte, Dansby Swanson, and Aaron Blair.
In addition, Tyrell Jenkins was included as part of a deal with Brady Feigl that acquired Luke Jackson from the Rangers.
Clearly, the best time to evaluate these trades will be ten+ years from now… that’s a given. But there are some projections one can draw even at this point.
For St. Louis:
- Jason Heyward – 6.0 fWAR
- Jordan Walden – 0.4
- Chris Ellis – 0
- John Gant – -0.1
- Luke Dykstra – 0
- Juan Yepez – 0
For Atlanta:
- Shelby Miller – 3.4 fWAR
- Tyrell Jenkins – -1.0
- Luke Jackson – 0.2
- Ender Inciarte – 5.6 thus far
- Dansby Swanson – 0.8 thus far
- Matt Adams – 0.3
- Jaime Garcia – 0.6
- Aaron Blair – -0.6
So this (substantially incomplete) score is 6.3 for the Cardinals and 9.3 for the Braves.