House That Hank Built
Fansided

Atlanta Braves Interest Level in Luis Robert Could be a Math Lesson

By Alan Carpenter

Dec 3, 2016; Santiago de Cuba, Cuba; The ashes of Cuban president Fidel Castro pass through Cespedes Park in Santiago de Cuba where he declared victory on Jan. 1, 1959. Mandatory Credit: Jack Gruber-USA TODAY NETWORK
Dec 3, 2016; Santiago de Cuba, Cuba; The ashes of Cuban president Fidel Castro pass through Cespedes Park in Santiago de Cuba where he declared victory on Jan. 1, 1959. Mandatory Credit: Jack Gruber-USA TODAY NETWORK /
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Apr 12, 2017; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals general manager Dayton Moore watches warm ups from the dugout prior to the game against the Oakland Athletics at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 12, 2017; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals general manager Dayton Moore watches warm ups from the dugout prior to the game against the Oakland Athletics at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports /

Budgets

When you look at this list, you have to be struck by the history of the clubs named here.

  • San Diego has already been the top spending team during this current international season, dumping $80 million in contracts and penalties on 54 new players.  Badler thinks they still have more cash available, but how much?
  • Oakland is known to have a tightwad ownership situation and only signed 13 players this season, but they have picked their spots to make splashes.

This has included Michael Ynoa (a then-record $2.25 million), Cespedes, and – most recently – Lazaro Armenteros (A.K.A. ‘Lazarito’) for $3 million.

  • Cincinnati went in strong this year, giving (Cuban SS) Alfredo Rodriguez $7 million and (Cuban RHP) Vladimir Gutierrez $4.75 million to head a class of 44 signees.  Everyone else got relative pocket change.  You’d have to wonder if the Reds have sufficient resources remaining to stay in the Robert bidding to the end, but as shown – plus their Chapman signing – they have an affinity for select Cuban players.
  • Houston has also been a frugal club, but recently shocked a lot of people by going “all in” for Yulieski Gurriel and various free agents.  Of course those were moves intended to help the major league team right now, and Robert represents a longer-term investment.

That said, it should not escape notice that the Astros signed 57 International players during this current spending spree, the most expensive of which was a Cuban pitcher (Cionel Perez, LHP) at $2 million.

The Astros will also have to spend more in this year’s draft:  they gained picks #56 and #75 from the Cardinals as compensation for the hacking incident.  Clever of St. Louis to sign Dexter Fowler and move those picks down an entire round.

In short, the Cardinals are playing this game to win… and while one of their tactics may have been illegal, they have let that stymie aggressive actions to acquire talent… even if some of those actions run close to the boundaries of ethics and professional behavior (e.g., asking Maitan and his trainer to break their deal with the Braves).

So in that light, Luis Robert represents a golden opportunity that they may very well wish to cash in.  I would therefore rank the Cardinals with the #1 chance to sign him.

  • Chicago White Sox – the enigma on this list.  The Sox are not in the penalty for 2017-18 since they have not overspent their International pool monies (but it’s close).  But word is that they are considering this for Robert before the new International money restrictions from the new MLB CBA kick in for the next signing season.

The big risk in their recent history was the signing of Jose Abreu.  That looked pretty good for 2 years.  Since then… not at much, but they’ve got him for 2 years after this one.  Still, they have the funds to swim in these waters, no doubt.

  • Nationals – I am going to leave them out of this analysis as there has been no sign whatsoever to indicate that they will be in the mix for Robert.  This team has other, more pressing needs on their horizon.
  • Braves – 33 total J2 signings this season and $27 million spent.  The team will be unable to spend a lot in July thanks to the penalties.  At the same time, the major league club has just spent more than ever before to assemble the current roster.

Just how much of a windfall do they expect from SunTrust Park?  Depending on how highly International Scouting Director Gordon Blakeley thinks of Robert, we might find out.  Of note: despite indicating interest, the team passed on spending $3 million (+/-) for Lazarito.

BOTTOM LINE

These are not the big budget, big money-spending teams.  But most should have enough to post some sort of competitive bid.  So between the desire to win this auction vs. the desire to be fiscally responsible to themselves,  I call this factor a PUSH.

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