House That Hank Built
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Atlanta Braves Interest Level in Luis Robert Could be a Math Lesson

By Alan Carpenter

Dec 3, 2016; Santiago de Cuba, Cuba; The ashes of Cuban president Fidel Castro pass through Cespedes Park in Santiago de Cuba where he declared victory on Jan. 1, 1959. Mandatory Credit: Jack Gruber-USA TODAY NETWORK
Dec 3, 2016; Santiago de Cuba, Cuba; The ashes of Cuban president Fidel Castro pass through Cespedes Park in Santiago de Cuba where he declared victory on Jan. 1, 1959. Mandatory Credit: Jack Gruber-USA TODAY NETWORK /
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Jul 20, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; First overall pick in the 2015 MLB draft Dansby Swanson looks on after signing with the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports
Jul 20, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; First overall pick in the 2015 MLB draft Dansby Swanson looks on after signing with the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports /

Market comps

The Rule 4 Draft (June 12) comes with its own set of spending allocations and slots.  The first few picks line up like this:

  • #1 overall:  $7.77 million
  • #2:  $7.19 million
  • #3:  $6.67 million
  • #4:  $6.15 million
  • #5:  $5.70 million (the Braves)

If Luis Robert is truly a ‘Top 25’ talent, then he fits on this list… and probably no lower than 3rd.

His standing is further enhanced by his play against older competition in the Cuban National Series, which lowers his risk as a prospect somewhat.

On top of that, the draft spending numbers are somewhat artificial because… well, because baseball is something of a monopoly and can frankly imposed whatever bonus figures it wants.

When the Braves acquired Touki Toussaint from the Diamondbacks in June of 2015, this was an eye-opening transaction to many about the economics involving top talent.

Atlanta effectively spent $10 million and Phillip Gosselin to acquire Toussaint, who is currently considered to be a borderline Top 100 talent if he can stop walking people.

(Newsflash:  15 innings so far this season for the Fire Frogs and that kind of control is coming:  17K, 3BB, 1.20 WHIP… though a 7.20 ERA)

So if Robert is truly a Top 25 player… $10 million?  $15 million?

BOTTOM LINE

Assuming that the scouts agree with Jim Callis and Ben Balder, then yes:  this looks to be a factor that should boost the bidding.

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