Atlanta Braves Interest Level in Luis Robert Could be a Math Lesson

In 4 weeks, a bidding battle ensues for the services of Cuban teen Luis Robert.  Just how much he might be paid is not a factor of normal market forces.

Okay.  The Atlanta Braves are interested in Luis Robert.  That much we already had guessed.

Robert is a 6’3″/205 19-year-old who was tearing up the Cuban National Series league over the past two seasons (overall: .312/.401/.460/.860 in 208 games with 19 homers and 34 other XBH).  He defected from Cuban last Fall and has just managed to attain free agent status just in time to be (probably) the last signee of baseball’s 2016-17 “J2” International season.

As for his skills, the scouting reports seem to be about his bat speed and power, despite a bit of swing-and-miss in his game (127 K in 782 PAs; 16% rate, though the pitching in Cuba is not of the highest quality now).

He has some speed and good fielding skills, but if you’re going after this kid, it sounds like you will want him for a corner outfield/power bat position down the road.

Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline recently did a comparison of Robert to Yoan Moncada and while Moncada was a consensus #1 overall prospect, he would rank Robert in the Top 25 today.  Obviously very good, but not yet top shelf.

So how much will teams be willing to pay?

That’s  the question worth exploring today, for there are a host of factors that teams – the Braves included – will have to weigh when coming up with a bid.

A lot of this that follows is unique to Robert’s situation, which is why I thought it fascinating enough to write (at considerable length) about this.  Some elements may still be useful for future considerations as well.

Competition

This has to do with the number of MLB teams participating in this sweepstakes.

BaseballAmerica’s Ben Badler spent 2 minutes to explain exactly why the field is limited to 6-7 clubs and not all 30.

The teams that are in the mix – Oakland, Houston, San Diego, St. Louis, Braves, Reds, Nationals and the White Sox – are discussed in this additional 2 minutes of video blogging.

In here, Badler discounts the Braves and Nationals’ participation but we’ve since learned that Atlanta is at least keeping an eye on the situation… if they aren’t actually full in on it.

So that’s a probable maximum of 8 teams – and reasons to discount a couple that we’ll get to.  All of these except Atlanta and Washington either have already held private workouts with Robert or are expected to do so over the next couple of weeks.

That’s not really a lot, but as these things go, you only need 2 bidders to have an auction.  But this is not nearly like the Yoan Moncada situation (to name one) in which the Red Sox felt compelled to blow away their competition with an incredible bid.

BOTTOM LINE

If there are really at least 3-4 teams seriously involved, that will be enough to raise the price.

Budgets

When you look at this list, you have to be struck by the history of the clubs named here.

• San Diego has already been the top spending team during this current international season, dumping $80 million in contracts and penalties on 54 new players.  Badler thinks they still have more cash available, but how much?
• Oakland is known to have a tightwad ownership situation and only signed 13 players this season, but they have picked their spots to make splashes.

This has included Michael Ynoa (a then-record $2.25 million), Cespedes, and – most recently – Lazaro Armenteros (A.K.A. ‘Lazarito’) for $3 million.

• Cincinnati went in strong this year, giving (Cuban SS) Alfredo Rodriguez $7 million and (Cuban RHP) Vladimir Gutierrez $4.75 million to head a class of 44 signees.  Everyone else got relative pocket change.  You’d have to wonder if the Reds have sufficient resources remaining to stay in the Robert bidding to the end, but as shown – plus their Chapman signing – they have an affinity for select Cuban players.
• Houston has also been a frugal club, but recently shocked a lot of people by going “all in” for Yulieski Gurriel and various free agents.  Of course those were moves intended to help the major league team right now, and Robert represents a longer-term investment.

That said, it should not escape notice that the Astros signed 57 International players during this current spending spree, the most expensive of which was a Cuban pitcher (Cionel Perez, LHP) at $2 million.

The Astros will also have to spend more in this year’s draft:  they gained picks #56 and #75 from the Cardinals as compensation for the hacking incident.  Clever of St. Louis to sign Dexter Fowler and move those picks down an entire round.

• St. Louis – For their part, the Cardinals spent $20 million on the International market in anticipation of that draft penalty, getting 29 new players and even making a late run at the Braves’ Kevin Maitan.

In short, the Cardinals are playing this game to win… and while one of their tactics may have been illegal, they have let that stymie aggressive actions to acquire talent… even if some of those actions run close to the boundaries of ethics and professional behavior (e.g., asking Maitan and his trainer to break their deal with the Braves).

So in that light, Luis Robert represents a golden opportunity that they may very well wish to cash in.  I would therefore rank the Cardinals with the #1 chance to sign him.

• Chicago White Sox – the enigma on this list.  The Sox are not in the penalty for 2017-18 since they have not overspent their International pool monies (but it’s close).  But word is that they are considering this for Robert before the new International money restrictions from the new MLB CBA kick in for the next signing season.

The big risk in their recent history was the signing of Jose Abreu.  That looked pretty good for 2 years.  Since then… not at much, but they’ve got him for 2 years after this one.  Still, they have the funds to swim in these waters, no doubt.

• Nationals – I am going to leave them out of this analysis as there has been no sign whatsoever to indicate that they will be in the mix for Robert.  This team has other, more pressing needs on their horizon.
• Braves – 33 total J2 signings this season and $27 million spent.  The team will be unable to spend a lot in July thanks to the penalties.  At the same time, the major league club has just spent more than ever before to assemble the current roster.

Just how much of a windfall do they expect from SunTrust Park?  Depending on how highly International Scouting Director Gordon Blakeley thinks of Robert, we might find out.  Of note: despite indicating interest, the team passed on spending $3 million (+/-) for Lazarito.

BOTTOM LINE

These are not the big budget, big money-spending teams.  But most should have enough to post some sort of competitive bid.  So between the desire to win this auction vs. the desire to be fiscally responsible to themselves,  I call this factor a PUSH.

Market comps

The Rule 4 Draft (June 12) comes with its own set of spending allocations and slots.  The first few picks line up like this:

• #1 overall:  $7.77 million
• #2:  $7.19 million
• #3:  $6.67 million
• #4:  $6.15 million
• #5:  $5.70 million (the Braves)

If Luis Robert is truly a ‘Top 25’ talent, then he fits on this list… and probably no lower than 3rd.

His standing is further enhanced by his play against older competition in the Cuban National Series, which lowers his risk as a prospect somewhat.

On top of that, the draft spending numbers are somewhat artificial because… well, because baseball is something of a monopoly and can frankly imposed whatever bonus figures it wants.

When the Braves acquired Touki Toussaint from the Diamondbacks in June of 2015, this was an eye-opening transaction to many about the economics involving top talent.

Atlanta effectively spent $10 million and Phillip Gosselin to acquire Toussaint, who is currently considered to be a borderline Top 100 talent if he can stop walking people.

(Newsflash:  15 innings so far this season for the Fire Frogs and that kind of control is coming:  17K, 3BB, 1.20 WHIP… though a 7.20 ERA)

So if Robert is truly a Top 25 player… $10 million?  $15 million?

BOTTOM LINE

Assuming that the scouts agree with Jim Callis and Ben Balder, then yes:  this looks to be a factor that should boost the bidding.

Calendar Urgency… or Lag

Robert can sign a contract on May 20th.  If June rolls around and he remains unsigned, then no one can sign him until the July 2 opening day of the next International signing season.

That would bring in a lot of teams currently sitting on the sidelines – including some “money” teams like the Yankees, who will be emerging from their 2-year penalty.

But thanks to the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, that won’t matter.  In fact, the Yankees ($4.75m) will have less available to spend than many other teams.

Under those provisions, a few teams have a $5.75 million spending pool.  You may (via trade) acquire up to 75% more spending power, so the absolute maximum contract anyone could offer Robert in July is $10.06 million… but that would be for him alone, and most teams need at least a handful of signees just to fill out their Dominican Summer League teams.

Of course, as Badler pointed out in his video message, probably 98% of International deals for July have already been made, so that works strongly against Robert’s cause.

Plus, you need a trading partner to even make $10.06 million available and that could be difficult – never mind that you’d lose other players to gain just one.

So the only way Robert might chance waiting until July 2nd to sign is if he is low-balled by all of the competing clubs named above.

All indications are that this won’t happen.  But it does limit him to just those teams we’ve discussed.

More Calendar considerations.

The same reason Badler cited for 2017-2018-eligible teams not getting on this race is actually a factor of the past for the Braves/Padres/Cards/Astros/Reds/etc.

Teams make agreements early with their signees for many reasons, but one of them involves their budgets.  The Braves planned to spend $27 million Internationally over the past 10 months.  The Padres planned to spend… well, maybe a bit less, but they’ve already added a recent Cuban escapee since the main signing period passed.

Teams allow for contingencies, but this is kind of like you or I budgeting for monthly car payments, but then seeing the vehicle’s transmission fail.

Repairs on this car might be within that contingency fund, but it also might be at the cost of that entire ‘rainy day fund’.

In this metaphor, Robert is probably the equivalent of a couple of transmissions.

Teams thus plan for certain International teens to sign, but the Cubans are a total wild card to the process since they are available at random times with random skills.

Thus I would not be surprised if Oakland, Cincy, or the Astros didn’t bow out of the Robert negotiations since these teams have already spent extra on Cubans over the past 6 months.

Then there is the penalty on top of his contract… we’ll get to that, too.

BOTTOM LINE

There is urgency for the signee, so that should reduce his leverage and serve to lower his bonus amount.  There is also the fact that teams will have to dig into reserves to afford Robert.  Both factors work against Robert since there’s no Red Sox club involved.

Penalties

About that penalty.  Whoever signs Robert – except the White Sox – will be subject to a 100% overage tax/penalty for further abusing their International spending limit for the 2016-17 signing period.

The White Sox will be close to that 100% penalty.  They signed 20 players and had a $2.97 million pool allotment.  $1.1 million of that went to a single player.

Thus, whatever the value is that teams assign to Robert has to be tempered by the fact that they will end up spending double of whatever he receives.

Teams will thus have to dig deep since they’ve already spent whatever they had intended to spend for 2016-17.

BOTTOM LINE

This definitely works against Robert.

Intangibles

Since Robert is 19, this is a look at the future:  he will not be an immediate help to an organization.  That said, teams have to keep the pipe moving, and if their club has been having trouble in the draft recently, then signing a stud prospect is one way to recover from such failures.

That said, we do not have full insight into everything that is going on in each franchise, but there are a couple of things we can guess:

• The Cardinals are still stung by the loss of Oscar Taveras and now by the loss of their first two draft picks.
• The Padres are looking for talent anywhere they can find it and have been highly aggressive since GM A.J. Preller took over.
• The Braves are still looking at their future outfield situation as a place of need.  They also might approach Robert to suggest he might be able to grow into a system that has huge upside.  Consider a future outfield with Inciarte, Acuna, Robert, and Didder; with Swanson, Albies, and Maitan in the infield… with Freeman still around through at least 2021.  Never mind the pitching.

BOTTOM LINE

This is something teams must decide for themselves, but whenever ‘intangibles’ drive a team to action, they will always serve to increase an otherwise rationally-made bid.

More from Tomahawk Take

• Braves News: Giving the bullpen some love, Trevor Bauer reinstated, more
• Atlanta Braves: Which offseason moves have other NL East teams made?
• Show the bullpen some love
• Braves News: Atlanta’s left field situation, Dansby negotiations, more
• Alex Anthopoulos discusses the Atlanta Braves payroll, rotation, Grissom, Swanson, Acuña, and more

Adding it All Up

Let’s Summarize:

• History/Risk:  suggests lower contract
• Competition:  suggests higher contract
• Budgets:          PUSH
• Market Comp: suggests higher contract
• Calendar deadlines:  suggests lower contract
• Penalties:    suggests lower contract
• Intangibles:  suggests higher contract

Figures… 3 higher, 3 lower, and a tie.  Honestly didn’t orchestrate it this way.

I am on record guessing something between $6 and $12 million for Robert.  I also seem to be on the low end of many other guesses.  I do believe that both the calendar and the penalty considerations will be very large factors and will tamp down the bidding enthusiasm.

Best guess: the Cardinals get him for a $10.5 million bonus and assign him to their low-A club to get started this Summer.

Next: The MInors are Lit

We will all know in about a month.