How Matt Kemp Can Actually Improve for the Atlanta Braves
I Think We Found Something
Matt Kemp’s loss of walks can be explained in one table:
| Year | O-Swing% |
| 2008 | 30.7 |
| 2009 | 28.4 |
| 2010 | 29.9 |
| 2011 | 32.1 |
| 2012 | 32.0 |
| 2013 | 31.0 |
| 2014 | 31.5 |
| 2015 | 35.8 |
| 2016 | 40.7 |
If you’re not familiar with the stat, O-swing% is how often a player swings at pitches out of the strike zone divided by how many pitches he sees out of the strike zone.
For some reason, starting in 2015, Kemp went for this ultra-aggressive approach where he swings at a lot pitches he simply can’t do anything with. The fact that he’s maintained his power numbers while swinging at pitches out of the zone 40% of time is a testament to how talented he is. But this approach has hurt his overall value at the plate as his OBP has nosedived by over 40 points.
I talked about sacrificing contact for more power in my Freddie Freeman breakdown a few weeks ago and how, if done while maintaining plate discipline, can be a positive.
Freeman’s O-swing% last year was 32.4 which is what Kemp’s was when he was an annual MVP candidate. Freeman did it the right way, being more aggressive in the zone while staying disciplined. Kemp has done it the wrong way by taking this aggressive approach and applying it universally to both strikes and balls.
The good news for Kemp is walks typically follow power. And Kemp has plenty of power. Pitchers fear power more than anything and consequently throw less strikes to power hitters. The walks are there for him to take. He just has to lay off the pitches.
As you watch Kemp in the early part of the year, this is what I suggest paying attention to. Forget the defense. It probably won’t be good. Laying off bad pitches and taking more walks are far more realistic paths to increasing his value.
If he can reduce his aggression on pitches out of the zone and become an on-base machine again, the Atlanta Braves could have one monster hitting behind another monster.