How Matt Kemp Can Actually Improve for the Atlanta Braves

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Mar 8, 2017; Lake Buena Vista, FL, USA; Atlanta Braves left fielder Matt Kemp (27) looks on during the fourth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Champion Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports /

To The Numbers

Take a look this table:

Time	BB%	K%	OBP	ISO	wRC+
2008-2014	8.4	23.5	.350	.206	129
2015-2016	5.6	22.9	.308	.206	109

2008-2014 is when Kemp was unquestionably one of the best players in the game. 2015-2016 is when the questions started so the table is broken up into those two time periods.

In all the debating about Matt Kemp’s value, a myth has formed about what kind of player he is. There’s this idea out there that he’s this offensive machine whose WAR and overall value is being brought down by defensive metrics. Many of you will think it’s the defensive metrics that are the problem there but it’s actually the first assumption in that myth that I want to address.

Is Matt Kemp an offensive machine? He certainly used to be. But now? Look at that wRC+. 109 over the last 2 years. Hmmm. Slightly above league average.

It’s not bad but it certainly isn’t what it used to be and at 32, Kemp should still be more than capable of achieving upper level offensive value. And it doesn’t take much investigation to figure out why he hasn’t the last couple of years.

One thing we know about baseball is getting on-base is good. Or to put it another way, making outs is bad. Doesn’t matter if you’re old school or new school, whether you’re following @santoniobrown or @LeeTrocinski on twitter: we can all agree it’s in the hitter’s best interest to not make outs.

And as you can see by his on-base percentage, between 2015-2016, Matt Kemp has made a lot more outs that he used to. And as you can also see it’s the walks that have suffered.

A Walk in the Park

Kemp’s walk rate has drastically dropped the last few years. In his should’ve-been MVP year of 2011, his walk rate was 10.7. Last year it was 5.4. And that has happened while his other numbers have stayed relatively the same.

K% basically the same, ISO the exact same, and while his AVG has dropped to .268 that’s plenty good enough to be a valuable offensive player.

Matt Carpenter put up a 135 wRC+ last year with a .271 average. How? He put up a 14.3 walk rate. You can run a relatively low average and be valuable as long as you’re taking your walks.

And Kemp hasn’t.

So why have the walks gone away?

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