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Atlanta Braves Will Be Solid in Middle, But What’s the Impact?

By Alan Carpenter

Aug 30, 2016; Anaheim, CA, USA; Cincinnati Reds second baseman Brandon Phillips (4) tagged Los Angeles Angels shortstop Andrelton Simmons (2) and and then threw to first base for a double play in the eighth inning of the game at Angel Stadium of Anaheim. Angels won 4-2. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
Aug 30, 2016; Anaheim, CA, USA; Cincinnati Reds second baseman Brandon Phillips (4) tagged Los Angeles Angels shortstop Andrelton Simmons (2) and and then threw to first base for a double play in the eighth inning of the game at Angel Stadium of Anaheim. Angels won 4-2. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports /
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Aug 17, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves shortstop Dansby Swanson (2) forces out Minnesota Twins left fielder Eddie Rosario (20) at second base at Turner Field. The Twins defeated the Braves 10-3. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Aug 17, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves shortstop Dansby Swanson (2) forces out Minnesota Twins left fielder Eddie Rosario (20) at second base at Turner Field. The Twins defeated the Braves 10-3. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports /

Shortstop

The data for this position is actually more consistent than at second base.  Having laid out the glossary of terms already, this should go more smoothly as well.

  • Top 3 Teams:  Giants (28.6), Cubs (26.3), and Indians (26.3)
  • Bottom 3:  Padres (-17.7), Rays (-9), Brewers (-8.5)
  • The Braves were 22nd… having a month of Swanson to help out.

The RZR Zone Ratings

  • Top 3:  83.0%, 86.3% (Best), 83.3%
  • Worst:  70.6%, 67.3% (Worst), 71.5%
  • Braves: 69.5%

That’s a huge difference.  Around 14% on average.  Imagine turns 14% more plays into outs?

Range Runs and DRS

  • Top 3:  18.1, 17.5, 16 with DRS of 18, 23, and 17
  • Bottom 3:  -22, -9, -9.4 with DRS -34, -17, +4
  • Braves: -4.6 and -11

When you turn 14% more plays into outs, you prevent runs.  This is starkly shown in these numbers… and shows just how important the shortstop position is.

By the way, Andrelton Simmons was out for a while with an injury as the Angels shortstop, but as a team for the year, this position still rated 5th overall – just behind the leaders.

Swanson Impact Projection?

This is difficult, but there’s a couple of factors that should work in Atlanta’s favor:

  • Swanson did have a month to get acclimated to the majors in 2016
  • He has a full Spring Training to get ready as ‘the choice’ for shortstop
  • Having Phillips beside him won’t hurt

As a result, I would project him within the Top 10 overall for 2017, which would forecast numbers like these:

  • RZR:  ~81%
  • RngR:  10
  • DRS:  8

So 11% more outs and 19 fewer runs scored against the Braves over 2016?  That would be good.

Let’s move to the outfield.

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