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Atlanta Braves Will Be Solid in Middle, But What’s the Impact?

By Alan Carpenter

Aug 30, 2016; Anaheim, CA, USA; Cincinnati Reds second baseman Brandon Phillips (4) tagged Los Angeles Angels shortstop Andrelton Simmons (2) and and then threw to first base for a double play in the eighth inning of the game at Angel Stadium of Anaheim. Angels won 4-2. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
Aug 30, 2016; Anaheim, CA, USA; Cincinnati Reds second baseman Brandon Phillips (4) tagged Los Angeles Angels shortstop Andrelton Simmons (2) and and then threw to first base for a double play in the eighth inning of the game at Angel Stadium of Anaheim. Angels won 4-2. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports /
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Second Base

In this section, I’ll lay out the methodology for the analysis – so hang with me through this… I promise it will get easier later!

On a team basis, the Red Sox had the highest total defensive rating (13.7) at the position in 2016.  That’s mostly Dustin Pedroia, of course.  Second went to the Phillies (13.4); third to the Royals (13).

On the other end of the spectrum were the Brewers and Rangers (both -9.7) and your Atlanta Braves (-8.2).  This may explain immediately why the interest in second basemen over the winter.

The Braves also had the third most plays accepted at second base with 325 (the Cardinals led with 370).

But let’s now look at how well those plays were handled.  I will include Cincinnati with the results for fairly obvious reasons (the Reds were 14th defensively in 2016 – which was still down for Brandon Phillips from ‘normal’ years).

Fangraphs records ‘Plays’ but also ‘Balls in Zone’.  In theory, a perfect defender will turn every ‘Ball in Zone’ into a play – because he should have the range to get there and do something with the ball.

Beyond that, there is RZR – the ratio of balls in a player’s zone that are turned into outs.

The data seems pretty clear:

  • Top 3 second base teams:  81.7%, 79.4%, 79.4% zone ratings
  • Bottom 3:  77.3%, 74.9%, 74.7%
  • Cincinnati was in the middle:  77.3%

The numbers vary a bit, but that’s roughly 5% more balls turned into outs from the bottom of the scale to the top.

Range Runs and DRS

Range Runs involve a calculation of how many runs above or below average that a fielder is expected to prevent by making plays on balls in their zone.  Basically, the more runners they allow on base that will become runs later on.

  • Top 3 defensive 2nd base teams:  8.6, 9.9, 8.4
  • Bottom 3:  -7.1, -7.5, -6.5
  • Cincinnati:  5.7

That’s a big difference:  roughly 15 runs per year that can be saved with an elite defender!

The Defensive Runs Saved metric also bears this out:

  • Top 3:  11, -1, 7
  • Bottom 3:  -4, -7, -16 (that last number was the Braves)
  • Cincinnati:  -2

> As an aside, it’s curious to note that the Tampa Bay Rays scored out as one of the worst last season – 25th overall with a terrible RZR of 66.4% and -1.7 Range Runs.  Their primary second baseman was Logan Forsythe, now a Dodger.  I thought the Dodgers were all about metrics now?

Differences for 2017?

So with this, it is reasonable to conclude that even if Phillips doesn’t improve over 2016’s defensively down year (by his standards), the Braves can probably expect around 3% more outs from balls hit in his direction and perhaps 10 fewer runs scored as a result.

That’s not a lot… but it’s also only one position.

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