Award Watch 2017: Do any Atlanta Braves have a shot at major awards?
From players to management to the fans, everyone in Braves country seems hopeful for the upcoming season. Who has a chance to add to their trophy case in 2017?
Despite their abysmal record, the Atlanta Braves did manage to take home some hardware last year.
Ender Inciarte secured his first career Gold Glove Award. Freddie Freeman won three (3!) NL Player of the Weeks and one NL Player of the Month Award. Jim Johnson also took home one NL Player of the Week.
It could be argued that Freeman also deserved the NL first base Silver Slugger Award but the selection of Anthony Rizzo was a defensible one… well, maybe.
Every team is guaranteed at least one All-Star selection so it’s hard to get too excited about Julio Teheran’s second trip to the midsummer classic but he’ll certainly remember it.
If you include the minors, the number of accolades climbs even higher. Notably, Ozzie Albies won a batting title and Dansby Swanson earned two All-Star selections (Southern League and Futures Game). That’s not to mention the entire Rome Braves team winning Baseball America’s Minor League Team of the Year.
Also, a gaggle of minor league players won player of the week honors in their respective leagues:
Today, we’re going to take a look at players in the Atlanta organization with a chance to take home major awards in 2017.
Note: It’s more or less impossible to predict Player of the Week candidates (as noted above, the closer of a last place team won it last year). These will just look at the end of year awards.
MVP: Freddie Freeman
Let’s go ahead and start with the biggest award out there – the Most Valuable Player.
Atlanta hasn’t enjoyed an MVP season since Chipper Jones claimed the honor in 1999. In the years since, the highest finish by any Brave came from Andruw Jones who placed second in 2005.
Make no mistake, MVPs are hard to come by. It’s reckless to project any non-Mike Trout player for an MVP-caliber season. That being said, Freeman definitely represents Atlanta’s best chance.
The 6-foot-5 first baseman took his game to a new level in 2016 setting career highs in home runs (34), slugging percentage (.569), isolated slugging percentage (.267), and on-base percentage (.400). He joined Trout and Joey Votto as one of just three qualified hitters to record a .300/.400/.500 line for the season.
That standout performance earned him a sixth place finish in the National League MVP balloting.
While 2016 was undoubtedly his best all-around season, sixth actually isn’t his highest MVP finish. In 2013 he rode a .319/.396/.501 line to a fifth place finish (it likely didn’t hurt that the Braves went 96-66 and won the NL East that season).
He’ll have loads of competition for the award including Corey Seager, Nolan Arenado, and reigning NL MVP Kris Bryant among many, many others.
Still, entering his age-27 season, Freeman is squarely in his prime and could very well continue to build on his excellent 2016. He will also have an improved lineup around him, which could pad his RBI total (a stat the still seems to hold weight with some voters).
Again, it’s virtually impossible to expect an MVP award. However, Freeman certainly belongs on the short list of realistic candidates.
Rookie of the Year: Dansby Swanson, Ozzie Albies
The Rookie of the Year Award aims to celebrate players who excel in their first taste of the major leagues. Given that, it may seem odd for Swanson – a guy with a month and a half of experience as an everyday big league starter – to even be in the conversation.
However, such is the case for Atlanta’s shortstop. His career total of 129 at-bats falls just one shy of the 130 AB cutoff to retain rookie status making him eligible for the award in 2017.
Though some considered his mid-August promotion last year to be aggressive, the Vanderbilt product held his own against major league competition. In 145 plate appearances, he delivered a .302/.361/.442 line with three home runs, three stolen bases, and excellent defense.
Barring injury, Swanson will begin the year where he left off in 2016, as Atlanta’s everyday starter at short. If last year’s late-season cameo is any indication, that position will remain his for the foreseeable future.
If he can build on his debut performance, Swanson will have a strong shot at besting his fellow NL rookies.
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Also of note is Swanson’s double-play partner of the future, second base prospect Ozzie Albies.
After flying through the minors, Albies finds himself knocking on the door of a big league promotion despite having just celebrated his 20th birthday last month.
While Atlanta appears set to enter the season with a combination of Brandon Phillips and Jace Peterson at the cornerstone, it may not be long before Albies forces his way into the picture. That Peterson has considerable positional flexibility makes this scenario even more likely.
One thing that will work in favor of Atlanta’s rookie tandem is the relative dearth of high-profile NL prospects.
That isn’t to say the National League is without exciting young talent, it’s just that big, close-to-the-majors names like Andrew Benintendi (BOS), Yoan Moncada (CWS), and Lucas Giolito (CWS) will be peddling their wares in the American League.
Cardinals hurler Alex Reyes would have represented the most likely challenger. He, like Swanson, has already impressed in a brief MLB stint. Unfortunately, the young righty will now spend the 2017 season recovering from Tommy John surgery.
Cy Young: Julio Teheran
As it stands, the Braves are one of just two organizations to have multiple Cy Young winners on their roster (Boston – David Price, Rick Porcello).
That being said, a repeat by either Bartolo Colon or R.A. Dickey is about as likely as Chipper repeating as MVP this year.
Let’s do some Player A, Player B with peripheral stats from 2016.
- Player A: 7.99 K/9, 1.96 BB/9, 1.05 HR/9, .260 BABIP, 77.8 LOB%, 39.1 GB%
- Player B: 7.63 K/9, 1.29 BB/9, 0.93 HR/9, .269 BABIP, 74.3 LOB%, 43.1 GB%
Without seeing anything else, which pitcher would you prefer on your team?
Player A has a slight advantage in both strikeout and strand rate. Meanwhile, Player B has a small edge in walk, home run, and ground ball rate.
Overall, though, they’re nearly indistinguishable.
Player A is Teheran. He finished 7-10 with a 3.21 earned run average over 188 innings.
Player B is Porcello. He finished 22-4 with a 3.15 earned run average over 223 innings and took home the AL Cy Young award.
In a league with Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Noah Syndergaard, and many, many more outstanding starting pitchers, it’s tough to break into the conversation for NL Cy Young.
Still, as Porcello showed last season, sometimes solid peripherals can turn into really flashy overall numbers when it’s all said and done.
After winning six Cy Young’s in the 1990s, Atlanta’s drought is now approaching 20 years. While it’s unlikely to be broken this season, Teheran represents the best chance.
Manager of the Year: Brian Snitker
Typically, Manager of the Year goes to whichever skipper led the team that most over-preformed expectations – provided that team made the playoffs.
Of course, voters can make their selections based on whatever criteria they choose but if a team projects to go 75-87 then proceeds to go 87-75 and sneak into the playoffs, there’s a good chance that manager will win the award.
Well, according to the latest PECOTA projections, 75-87 is exactly where the Braves are expected to land.
If everything comes together in 2017 and they somehow make it into the second Wild Card spot (or better), Snitker has to be the favorite.
And who knows? If Freeman can carry over the momentum from his colossal second half, Swanson can avoid the sophomore slump, Kemp maintains his power while finding an extra step in left, Phillips and Markakis provide vintage performances…
It would take a lot but isn’t entirely out of the realm of possibility.
Gold Glove Award: Ender Inciarte, Freddie Freeman
As mentioned earlier, Inciarte took home GG honors in 2016. His absurd range and excellent first step helped him cover a ton of ground and narrowly beat out fellow speedster Billy Hamilton.
He plays with a competitive edge and seemingly wills his way into being an elite defender. Between game-saving catches and perfectly-played fake outs, Inciarte produced Web-Gem-worthy plays on a nightly basis.
Heading into 2017, the National League GG competition in center field will again be a two-horse race between Inciarte and Hamilton. Staying healthy and remaining a serviceable hitter (something voters still seem to value) will likely be the deciding factor.
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Another sneaky candidate for Gold Glove honors could be Freeman. While first base can be a difficult defensive position to judge, both advanced metrics and the eye test speak favorably about Freeman’s leather work.
While he doesn’t seem to get much love league wide, Atlanta fans have no doubt recognized him for his acrobatic splits and slick fielding. He does an excellent job picking short hops and has the ability to extend his large frame to rein in errant throws.
Not to take anything away from Andrelton Simmons but look back at some of his best defensive highlights. While he makes otherworldly stops and strong throws, many of them also involve a full split or impressive pick from Freeman.
In terms of actual stats, Freeman ranked second among NL first basemen in defensive runs saved and fourth in UZR last season. His candidacy isn’t based solely on receiving throws, he’s a legitimate asset on defense and it wouldn’t be unreasonable for him to win the award.
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A third candidate worth a look could be Albies. It remains to be seen how much playing time he’ll receive but he’s considered a strong defensive player at shortstop. He projects to be one of the best defenders at second base in all of baseball.
We’ll just have to see how much time he gets at the position.
Silver Slugger: Freddie Freeman, Matt Kemp
Freeman has become an absolute offensive force. He slaughtered big league pitching, especially in the second half. He’s a strong bet for 30+ home runs with a real chance at topping 40. He has the plate discipline to run a .400 OBP. He also now has a stronger lineup around him.
Point being, Freeman can hit.
He will have lots of competition in the NL. Paul Goldschmidt, Joey Votto, and reigning Silver Slugger Anthony Rizzo could all certainly win it. Wil Myers has come into his own out in San Diego. There are lots of legitimate options out there.
Still, if Freeman delivers anything close to last season, he’ll be in the conversation.
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Another darkhorse candidate could be Kemp. During his Dodger days he took home a pair of Silver Sluggers, though the most recent was back in 2011. In the years since, he hasn’t come close to repeating those performances.
However, last season he did see a nice power resurgence hitting more home runs than any other NL OF (not counting Kris Bryant who spent most of his time at third). He will also probably have Inciarte, Swanson, and Freeman hitting ahead of him this year.
Early reports from Spring Training are that Kemp has slimmed down quite a bit. This is encouraging as weight gain had previously been cited as a potential reason for his regression.
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Surely, there are other players who could emerge as surprise award contenders. If Kemp regains some defensive ability and continues to hit maybe he’s the comeback player of the year?
Maybe a reliever gets hot and goes perfect in 55 save opportunities to garner some Cy Young votes.
Maybe one of Atlanta’s young pitchers puts together a ROY-worthy campaign.
Maybe Micah Johnson hits .410 with 60 home runs and wins the MVP. We just don’t know until the games are played.
Regardless, be on the lookout for the guys listed above come award season.