Atlanta Braves Scouting Report on RHP Matt Withrow

Scouting Report

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Size/Delivery/Control

Size – Withrow is listed at 6’5″ and 235 pounds, and he looks that for sure. He strikes an imposing pose on the mound, pulling his cap over his brow to give the hitter no real view of his eyes as he focuses in on the plate.

Delivery – Withrow’s delivery had me thinking a ton of another former Texan, Roger Clemens.

He brings his knee to chest high, and then he lunges forward from that point with force in his sizable frame, releasing from a high 3/4 arm slot. It’s not an explosively fast lunge, but a powerful lunge in force generated by the move.

Withrow gets into his legs well in his delivery, but one issue that you do see is that from that top of his delivery, often he ends up with varied force in that push toward the plate, meaning his foot lands differently.

I did note that his release point was consistent in his delivery, but with the foot placement, his release was at a different angle to the plate, which led to different issues with his command control.

One thing to note is that at the end of his season with Carolina, he dialed back his velocity just a hair for more command/control, and that seemed to lead to better foot placement as well.

Control (45) – Currently, I would put a tick below-average control on Withrow’s control figures, but as you can see from his results at the end of the season, working with the Braves staff over the season saw some progress in that regard.

He could work well to a 50 or even 55 grade if that progress can be maintained going forward, and that could allow him to work well as a starter.

Pitches

Fastball (60) – Withrow has a tremendous fastball in how heavy the pitch is, and I was tempted to even go a tick higher, but chose to stay here for now.

He sits 91-94 with the fastball and can touch 96-97. He was reported to hit 97-98 in short bursts out of the bullpen in college.

The ball comes from his high 3/4 arm slot and his 6’5 slot, giving him good plane already, but the way he throws the pitch is just ridiculously heavy.

He gets very good late sink on the pitch, even if the pitch doesn’t show a lot of run to either side.

I did note that his ball up the ladder when he was landing well in his delivery was a pitch that was an infield fly most of the time as hitters just couldn’t drive it for any distance.

However, when the delivery is off, his fastball often trailed and “hung” up in the zone.

Change Up (50) – Withrow is working on his change, but it’s a very intriguing pitch, at the very least. The velocity sits in the low-80s on the pitch, giving him good velocity separation.

He also has an interesting break in behavior on the pitch as the pitch works like his sinking fastball when he works it waist high, getting good late sink, but working low in the zone, he gets more hard bite like his slider.

Curve Ball (50) – No one I’ve seen has recorded this, but it seemed to me that Withrow threw what appeared out of hand as a hard curve, with minimal loop ahead of the plate, but more of a looping fall than the straight break his slider would get. This as a secondary look was near impossible for hitters to square or even make contact with.

Slider (55) – Of his off speed stuff, the slider is the premier pitch.

Withrow sat in the low-80s with the pitch, but touched 84-85 on multiple occasions with his slider, giving him excellent velocity on the pitch.

The best part of the pitch is that his arm action is nearly identical on all his pitches, and his slider looks similar to his fastball until the very end when it breaks much more sharp than the fastball, so many hitters swung right over the pitch or hit the very top of the ball, pounding it into the ground.

MLB Player Comp

I mentioned in my September write-up on Withrow that I see a lot of Jason Hammel in what Withrow offers.

The two are similar in size, with Hammel going 6’6″ and 225 pounds with Withrow listed at 6’5″ and 235.

They also have a similar pitch mix with Hammel working with a hard curve similar to what I saw with Withrow.

Many may feel like that’s a knock on Hammel, but he just signed a 2 year, $18M contract. Hammel has been a solid guy to be as a #4 starter in a rotation, but injury issues have plagued him.

Interestingly, one reason Withrow was available for the Braves at the pick he was out of Texas Tech was his lengthy injury history at Texas Tech, so there may also be some similarity there as well.

Hammel has been a guy with a 4.42 career ERA and 1.35 WHIP with a 18.5% strikeout rate and a 7.5% walk rate.

Next: Braves Minor League Database

Withrow will likely open with AA Mississippi this season, and if he continues the progress he made at the end of the season, he could be a fast mover or a very good trade piece as a future back-end starter.

If the change never comes around, the fastball/slider combo is lethal enough to be a very solid reliever.