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The 2017 Atlanta Braves: How Good Will They Be?

By Alan Carpenter

Oct 1, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Bartolo Colon (40) in action during a baseball game against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Derik Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 1, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Bartolo Colon (40) in action during a baseball game against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Derik Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports /
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STARTING PITCHING

  • ATL – Teheran, Garcia, Dickey, Colon, Folty, Wisler, et al
  • MIA – Conley, Volquez, Chen, Koehler, Locke, Straily
  • NYM – Syndergaard, deGrom, Harvey, Matz, Gsellman
  • PHI – Hellickson, Buchholz, Eickhoff, Nola, Velasquez
  • WAS – Scherzer, Strasburg, Gio, Roark, Ross

I won’t dwell on this a lot:  the Nationals and Mets must stay healthy… and these scroes actually assume some issues for the Mets.  The Braves have the most depth, but it’s unclear whether this whole rotation will stay with the team all year.

  • NYM:  5, 5, 3, 3, 3 – 19 points
  • WAS:  5, 4, 3, 2, 2 – 16 points
  • ATL:  4, 3, 3, 3, 2 – 15 points
  • PHI:  4, 3, 3, 2, 2 – 14 points
  • MIA:  2, 2, 2, 2, 1 – 9 points

One note:  if the Braves actually make the move to land Jose Quintana… not likely, but this is all an academic exercise… then their scores change to 4, 4, 3, 3, 3 – up 2 points.

BULLPEN

Not a big impact here for any club – the Mets will likely lose Familia for at least 1/4th of the season; no other team has an impact closer.  While changes are still likely, I don’t see a large shift coming, so let’s assign these points:

ATL 3.5; NYM 3.5; PHI 3; WAS 2.5; MIA: 2.

Points Tally

  • Nationals:  47
  • Braves:  42.5
  • Mets:  40.5
  • Phillies: 38.5
  • Marlins: 35

That’s a surprising result, to be honest.

The Mets suffer here because of perceptions that they will fight to keep everybody on the field. If I were to target specific players to watch, they would be David Wright (clearly), and their rotation’s top three.

The Braves should be less spectacular and yet more consistent overall, so that helps their final score.  Excepting perhaps the outfield, they have overlapping depth at most positions, especially pitching.

Does that really mean second place for the Braves?  In my mind mind, that’s entirely up to the Mets.  But perhaps my bias is still showing, despite attempts to quell that (before doing this, I had expected the Mets to be in second; the Braves third).

The Marlins should be better, but their pitching is in disarray, so they will have to out-hit everyone.  The Phillies will be better when they want to be better – but with their current lineup, it does not appear that they have targeted this season for that task.

The Nationals continue to look like the easy winners of the division if their pitching holds together.

Their lineup features 3 possible MVP-level performers (Harper, Murphy, and Turner) along with very capable support in Eaton and Rendon. That will probably make up for their deficiencies in the bullpen, at catcher, and at first base.

Next: An Old Friend Dies

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