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The 2017 Atlanta Braves: How Good Will They Be?

By Alan Carpenter

Oct 1, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Bartolo Colon (40) in action during a baseball game against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Derik Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 1, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Bartolo Colon (40) in action during a baseball game against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Derik Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports /
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3RD BASE

  • ATL – Garcia/Rodriguez
  • MIA – Prado
  • NYM – Wright???/Reyes/Flores
  • PHI – Franco
  • WAS – Rendon

There are two leaders here, but it’s not a particularly strong position around the division… unless David Wright is playing.  But that’s a big if, right?

Adonis Garcia may need to hit consistently to keep his job with Sean Rodriguez hanging around.  Maikel Franco could break out… or flame out.

Meanwhile, there’s Rendon and Prado at the top … can Rendon stay there?  Probably.  Can Prado?  He always has.

My grades assume that Rendon isn’t a fluke and that David Wright won’t make it back for the whole season.

WAS (5), MIA (4), PHI (3), ATL (1.5), NYM (1.5)

SHORTSTOP

  • ATL – Swanson
  • MIA – Hechavarria
  • NYM – Cabrera
  • PHI – Galvis
  • WAS – Turner

A pretty strong group here.  Did you realize that Dansby Swanson amassed 0.8 fWAR in just 38 games?  Extrapolate that to 150 games and that’s 3.9 WAR… which would have tied Addison Russell for 3rd in the league.

Still, there’s Trea Turner, who has 3.3 fWAR in just 73 games.  It feels like 3.0 of that happened against Atlanta.

I don’t know what happened to Adeiny Hechavarria, but it’s hard to imagine a significant rebound from his 2016 season.

WAS (5), ATL (3.5), NYM (3), PHI (3), MIA (1.5)

OUTFIELD

  • ATL – Kemp, Inciarte, Markakis, PTBNL
  • MIA – Ozuna, Yelich, Stanton, Suzuki
  • NYM – Cespedes, Granderson, Bruce, Conforto
  • PHI – Kendrick, Herrera, Saunders, Altherr and Quinn
  • WAS – Werth, Eaton, Harper, Robinson

Rather than tackle the outfielders in separate positions – since the Mets may be moving guys around a bit – I opted to lump them all together.

Speaking of those Mets, they’ve been unable to free themselves of Jay Bruce, so either he’s got to get a lot more like his Cincy self or they’ve got a fairly serious hole in right field.  Granderson and Cespedes will need to repeat their 2016 performances’s to keep their team going… especially if Wright isn’t there.

If Giancarlo Stanton can ever control his swing and miss tendencies, then the Marlins outfield could compete with anyone.  As it is, they still look strong, particularly when you have a guy like Ichiro coming off the bench.

Philadelphia looks like a team in transition – perhaps a year or two behind Atlanta… with their own impact outfielder in Odubel Herrera and perhaps another one on the way in Roman Quinn.  But until then… some questions.

Washington needs Bryce Harper to return to form.  He played confused last year – literally good and then bad each month in succession.  Jayson Werth is showing his age, but moving Turner to shortstop with Eaton coming in will make them better.

Atlanta joins Miami with a full slate of returning starters and the Braves are clearly banking on a steady repeat of 2016’s second half to support Freeman.  Consistentcy will be important here, and that seems reasonable to expect.

So how do we score this with uncertainty all over the division?  Here’s where you could probably have the most complaints about these ratings – but we’ll give it a shot:

  • WAS – 5, 4, and 2 points:  11 points
  • ATL – 4, 3, 3:  10 points
  • MIA – 4, 3, and 2:  9 points
  • NYM – 3.5, 3, 1.5:  8 points
  • PHI – 4, 2, 2:  8 points
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