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Should the Atlanta Braves Consider Extending Swanson Soon?

By Alan Carpenter

Oct 2, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves second baseman Jace Peterson (8) and shortstop Dansby Swanson (2) celebrate after a double play against the Detroit Tigers in the eighth inning at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 2, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves second baseman Jace Peterson (8) and shortstop Dansby Swanson (2) celebrate after a double play against the Detroit Tigers in the eighth inning at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports /
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Sep 15, 2016; Baltimore, MD, USA; Tampa Bay Rays third baseman Evan Longoria (3) hits a three run home run in the first inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 15, 2016; Baltimore, MD, USA; Tampa Bay Rays third baseman Evan Longoria (3) hits a three run home run in the first inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports /

Some Other Long-Term “Early” Contracts

I am relying on a good portion of Sam Miller’s work from this FoxSports.com column here.  We’ll stick with position players for this comparison.

  • Jay Bruce (Reds).  7 years, $63 million no that his option has been picked up (2011-17).  8.125 yrs. service time.  One ‘bad’ season after perhaps being rushed back from knee surgery, plus poor stint with Mets.  3 time All-Star, 2 time silver slugger, 5th ROY; 10th MVP twice.
  • Carlos Gonzalez (Rockies).  7 years, $80 million (2011-17).  8.059 yrs service time.  One bad season; 119 OPS+ otherwise.  3 time All Star; 3 time Gold Glove; 2 time silver slugger.
  • Billy Butler (Royals).  4 years, $30 million + option (bought out in 2015).  Was signed by Oakland for $11.6 million for both 2016-17; released in 2017.  Great in 2009-2013; poor in 2014-15.  All Star and silver slugger in 2012.  Still was hitting decently for average; lost power.
  • Alexei Ramirez (White Sox). Debuted in majors at 26½, so comparison is tougher.  4 years, $32.5m + option.  Lifetime .270 hitter, but declined to .240’s suddenly at age 33.  OPS generally .700-800 range  through age 32.  2nd ROY, All-Star once; Silver Slugger twice.
  • Jose Tabata (Pirates).  6 years, $15 million plus options – signed well before arbitration.  2017 option was bought out. Service time is stuck at 4.074 years.  8th ROY.  Was never great, but the contract seemed to assume he’d grow into something more.  Never played more than 110 games in any year.
  • Jose Altuve (Astros).  4 years, $12.5 million + options for 2018-19.  Service time 5.072 years.  I’d call this a winner for Houston:  4 time All-Star, twice top ten MVP, 3 time silver slugger, 1 Gold Glove.
  • Jon Singleton (Astros).  5 years, $10 million with options (2014-18; opt. 2019-21). Waived last week.  Never blossomed into the hitter he was expected to be.  Will have chance to regroup in the minors (still just 23 years old).
  • We mentioned Anthony Rizzo on the previous page.  I think that’s working out well for the Cubs.

Not including Mike Trout… he’s in a category all his own.

Thoughts About These Deals

  • This is an incomplete list – true.  But hopefully somewhat representative of successes and failures along with some warnings about age.
  • One thought pervading both this list and the Braves’ list:  premium players are premium players.  They tend to out-perform and last longer with fewer and shallower down years.  The trick, of course, is in recognizing who the premium players are.

Let’s add one more case – a special one – for illustrative purposes:

  • Evan Longoria (Rays).  15 years, $144.5m over 2008-2022 with a team option.  Contract kicked in at age 23.  Still has just 8.170 years of service time.  Still will “only” make $13 million in 2017.  ROY winner, 2 Gold Gloves, 6 times received MVP votes, 3 time All-Star, silver slugger.  Lifetime .731 OPS / 128 OPS+.  Will be 31 for 2017 season.

All taken together, the Rays may very well be looking to trade Longoria before he hits 10-and-5 rights early in 2018 season.  But it won’t be because he hasn’t been worth his contract at this point.

With a bit of a trade-off of offense-for-defense, Longoria is close to what my own projection for Swanson would be.  Swanson should hit a little more for average; both will be valuable as a defender at their respective positions; Longoria is the better slugger.

Both should drive in runs roughly equally given the chance, though Swanson will lose RBI as a future 2-hole hitter.

The next question would be that if a good portion of Swanson’s value is due to being a shortstop, how long will that continue to be the case?  Furthermore, once he starts to lose a step, will the Braves have a place for him in his 30+ years?

All of these questions factor into a future contract offer.

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