Should the Atlanta Braves Consider Extending Swanson Soon?

Recent Braves’ History

The Braves have made several attempts to extend their early-breakout players – some of these have been good moves, others…

• Brian McCann.  March 2007 – 6 years, $27.8 million; $12 million option for 2013 (exercised).

At the time, this was a record deal for a player with under 2 years of service time.  He had just turned 23.

• Chipper Jones.  After 1995 – 4 years, $8.25 million.

He was 23½ with just over 2 years of service time.

• Jeff Francoeur.  March-ish 2007, probably almost the identical deal that McCann received.

Right after McCann signed his deal, the Braves turned around and asked Frenchy to sign virtually the same contract.  Reportedly, he wanted twice as much.

Given that McCann’s deal was a record for the situation and that Jeff had a month less service time at the same age, this (if true) was a preposterous ask on his part.  Obviously it was a terrible career choice for Francoeur, and the Braves dodged a bad contract here.

• Andrelton Simmons.  Feb 2014, 7 years, $58 million (through 2020).  He was 24 at the time.

In what is becoming a theme, this became the largest contract for a player with less than 2 years of service time… besting Anthony Rizzo (7 years/$41 million).

• Freddie Freeman.  Feb 2014.  8 years, $135 million (through 2021).  He was also 24.

This is currently the longest contract ever for a Braves’ player, besting both McCann and also Jones’ 6 year/$90 million 2000 deal.

In another theme consistent with the McCann/Frenchy offers), Jason Heyward was reportedly offered the same deal, but anecdotal reports indicate that he was looking for something in the $200 million range, and turned down the Braves.

The difference in this contract is that Freeman was arbitration eligible that season – his first year of eligibility.

• Julio Teheran.  Feb. 2014.  6 years, $32.4 million plus option.  He was 23 years old.

Again, Teheran was entering his first year of arbitration eligibility.  The Braves still seem to have gotten the best of this deal.

• Craig Kimbrel.  Feb 2014.  4 years, $42 million plus option (for 2018).  Age 25.

2014 was his first arbitration year as well.

Note:  I am leaving Chris Johnson and Dan Uggla off this list for multiple reasons, chiefly their ages, and service time.  Likewise, Melvin Upton was also in a different place all together as an outside free agent signee.

While all of these players had a ‘bad’ contract, it’s not a comparable situation to the one we’re looking at with Swanson as a pre-arbitration player.

Thoughts about These Deals

• The Braves didn’t follow any kind of conventional wisdom when these deals were handed out – many of them were ground-breaking, in fact.
• It is arguable that all of the deals entered into by the team and the player have “worked”.  Thus far, all have resulted in solid production by the value with good value for the club.
• The contracts that would not have worked well for the team are surprisingly few:  Francoeur’s (for sure) and Heyward’s (somewhat debatable).
• All of them were offered in the year 23-24 of the player.
• All of them were offered after 1 full year of service; most just prior to arbitration starting.
• Of note:  John Coppolella was on staff with the Braves for nearly all of these contracts.