Atlanta Braves Discussion: Julio Teheran Defying Norms

Remember when Chris Johnson was good for the Atlanta Braves?

Take Chris Johnson as a study on the offensive side. He’s defied BABIP his entire career by .056 points, but the year that he chased the batting crown his BABIP was .394.  That was an unsustainable number. This number was apparently not known to Frank Wren as he extended Chris early the next season. That year, Chris was absolutely awful but still carried a BABIP rate that was .045 points higher than the norm. The crazy part is how much this affected his value. That year, he actually improved his defensive ratings across the board, but the luck dragon wasn’t on his shoulder and his WAR went from 2.5 to 0.2. He’s continued his BABIP success, but he’s not a successful major leaguer anymore….but there’s always 2014.

Next: Help us out, Julio!

What should Braves do with Julio?

In conclusion, 2016 Julio feels very much like 2014 Chris Johnson. The difference is that Julio doesn’t need excessive luck to be a good pitcher, but he likely needs it to be an elite pitcher.  If the Braves can find a team to trade with that’s willing to meet Julio’s production value based on sustainability over the course of the rest of this year and 3 more years following, the Braves would be very smart to consider moving him.  In my opinion, a deal very similar to what Braves received from the Arizona Diamondbacks would suffice. If no one is willing to meet those terms. Julio stays a Brave!