Atlanta Braves Discussion: Julio Teheran Defying Norms

Dissecting Atlanta Braves Julio Teheran

For his career, Julio has proven that his ERA defies his advanced metrics pretty regularly (about ½ run difference for his career, to be exact). This is due, in large part to being a flyball pitcher which naturally decreases BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play). A normal BABIP is around .300 but Julio has held opponents to a .277 BABIP for his career.

2016 Julio has taken the above differential to new heights this year where the difference in his ERA and FIP/xFIP is nearly a run for FIP and nearly 1.5 runs for xFIP.  What’s causing the difference in the extreme separation of these numbers? Here are my theories:

1. Added luck. As stated above, Julio has always held opponents to a low BABIP, but this year it’s down to .247, .030 points below his career norm and over .050 points away from average.
2. The Flowers effect. There’s no doubt that Tyler Flowers has played a big part in stealing strikes for the Braves pitchers and many have reaped the benefit of picking up an extra K or two.  However, the aspect of this that people aren’t really talking about is Flowers’ talent in stealing strikes also makes batters chase more out of the zone pitches, likely causing weaker than normal contact.

So, what’s sustainable? I talked with Lee Trocinzki who is the pitching guru I go to for all pitching questions and he thinks that a 0.4 difference is sustainable for Julio’s career, which points to a regression in his stats this year, or the next. He also stated that xFIP was created in ‘02 and the only pitcher to pitch over 1000 innings that has sustained a difference as big as Julio is seeing this year is Chris Young. 1 guy.

Next: Chris Johnson was Good and Angry for a Year!