Atlanta Braves Mid-Season Prospect Reports

Aug 10, 2015; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers player

(18) hits a triple against the Washington Nationals during the third inning at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports

Earlier this season, TomahawkTake published our list of the Top 20 prospects in the organization.  A whole lot has transpired since that time – obviously – and we’re going to look at the progress each one has made this season.

This is not yet a new list – but a report of those who graced our last Top 20.  While we clearly recognize that this early-2015 slate has been well overcome by events, it’s both good to review how things went for these players in addition to noting just how far the farm system has come in such a short time.

Our entire TomahawkTake staff contributed to this report.

1. Jose Peraza

Yeah, we know:  he’s gone to the Dodgers.  1 for 4 in his major league debut last night (a triple), thanks in part to Bryce Harper‘s misplay (should have been either an out or a single, but I’m sure he’ll take it!).  He also drew a walk – go figure!

Nonetheless, we’re still going to provide our assessment.

The Good:

Peraza has had no issue making contact this year, as evidenced by his .281 batting average. He’s also been successful on the basepaths, stealing 23 and only being caught 4 times, for an 85% success rate.

The No-So-Good:

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Peraza’s not taken to second base well, and by not well, we mean terribly, horribly bad. Peraza’s been tried in center field, and the casual fan may have assumed that was due to the strong play from Jace Peterson in Atlanta this season, but the organization may have simply seen that while his range at shortstop had him on the radar of every top list last offseason, the throw from second base has been a terrible bugaboo for him. Already this season, he has 12 errors, primarily throwing errors, in his 67 games at second base. Last season, between high-A and AA, he had a total of 10 errors in 99 games at second.

Even if the defense was solid, Peraza’s offensive game has not just stagnated, but he has taken a step back at the plate. He’s shown nearly no power this year with a .077 ISO and only a .026 OBP delta, so his entire offense is driven by his batting average right now, given a walk rate that’s been under 4% over the past 2 seasons.

The Stats:

• Atlanta AAA:  .294/.318/.379/.697 (96 games, 427 PA)
• Los Angeles AAA:  .385/.415/.590 (10 games, 42 PA)

TRENDING:

Peraza was a 21 year-old at AAA, so certainly he’s not hurt by a tough year at the level, but the defense is more the concern right now. Peraza in April may have fetched the Braves a corner infield or outfield power bat (see: the Aaron Judge rumors, whatever level of truth there may have been to them), but right now a guy like Judge would require much more than just Peraza.  So instead, he and Alex Wood were turned into Hector Olivera, which fulfilled needs for both clubs involved.

Next: Carolina Bus Crash On My Mind

MLB baseballs on the field before a game between the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

2. Lucas Sims

The Good:

21-year-old Lucas Sims was acquired in the first round of the 2012 draft, 21st overall, and was almost immediately tagged as a future top-of-the-rotation starter.  His 2012 rookie campaign did little to squelch that, with high strikeout totals and generally good results.  This season, he has recovered those kinds of strikeout numbers (8.33 K/9) after averaging just 6 during 2014.  The fastball is the best pitch of this 6’2″ right-hander, which grades out at 60-to-65 depending on who you ask.  Sims’s curve is close behind that, and is probably his best swing-and-miss offering.  He has fully recovered for his bruises suffered in the Mudcat bus crash, and was promoted to AA recently.

The Not-So-Good:

Control is the issue.  Sims had a poor season in 2014 at High-A Lynchburg, and started this season in the same league (now Carolina Mudcats).  Between the recovery of his K-rate and personnel moves, he was recently bumped to AA, despite obvious struggles with control and hittability. His High-A WHIP was 1.55; in 17 AA innings it’s 1.76.  That increase seems to be all in extra walks since Oppo hitting is down from .255 to .210.

Sims’ star has definitely slipped:  fangraphs now rates his future value at just 50 on the 80 scale.  That’s more like back end of the rotation at this point.

The Stats:

• High-A:  40 innings (9 starts).  5.18 ERA; 8.33 K/9, 5.18 BB/9
• AA:  17 innings (4 starts).  7.41 ERA, 12.18 K/9, 9 BB/9.

TRENDING:

Certainly, Sims is trending downward (and this #2 ranking will not hold), though he’s still a young 21, so he has some time to get things back together if he can locate his pitches with regularity.  Nonetheless, he’s physically getting to the point at which he has most of the tools he will ever have, and the challenge will be whether he can consistently put them together.  If he can persevere through that, then he’s still got a shot.  But right now, he looks like a trade candidate.  2016 will be a key year for him regardless.

Next: Prepping for the Majors?

Aug 8, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Mike Foltynewicz (48) pitches against the Miami Marlins during the first inning at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

4. Mike Foltynewicz

The Good:

Folty in his time in Atlanta actually pitched better than his AAA stats, but the base ERA/WHIP stats wouldn’t tell you that, mostly due to a very fluky BABIP in the major league level. The major league level certainly didn’t fluster him this time in the same way that it seemed to in Houston’s bullpen late last season. Folty had his best walk rate at any level of professional baseball in his professional time, walking 7.3% of hitters, and he’s still shown tremendous strikeout stuff, whiffing 27.4% of AAA hitters and 21% of MLB hitters.

This will be the last time you see him on a prospect list here, as Foltynewicz has now ‘graduated’ from that status.

The Not-So-Good:

Foltynewicz has an incredible fastball (grade 70 with future 80) and a slider that can make your knees buckle. The issue has always been a lack of a third pitch, be it a changeup or another offspeed pitch. He is a guy that could benefit with a differently-gripped fastball, like a split-finger or cutter. We have a similar review of one of our newly-acquired young pitchers, as you’ll read about later. Folty has been moved to the bullpen upon his most recent call up, and we think that he and Tyrell Jenkins together could make an incredibly dynamic 1-2 punch in the back of the Braves bullpen, though we understand the desire to start him more. More than anything, Folty has to calm himself down. He tends to press when he’s got runners on, and that causes his near-100mph heat to flatten out, and you can throw the ball as fast as you’d like, but if there’s no wiggle, guys that get the bat on it will put it over a fence.

The Stats:

• AAA:  57 innings, 10 starts.  10.01 K/9, 4.13 BB/9, 1.11 HR/9, 3.49 ERA
• Majors:  72 innings, 12 starts (3 relief apps.).  7.84 K/9, 3.11 BB/9, 1.74 HR/9, 5.23 ERA

TRENDING:

Similarly profiled guys like Randy Johnson and J.R. Richard took some time in the major leagues to get themselves established before taking off as starters, so there could still be something there, especially if a 3rd pitch is added, but at 23, Folty probably only has a year or two more that the team will allow him to keep starting before he starts being the guy to finish ballgames.

The interesting part?  That fastball does have staying power, holding velocity deep into games… if he gets that far.  That’s rare, and could buy Folty some extra time to get that needed starter’s consistency.

5. Max Fried

Fried is really an incomplete at this time as he has not pitched in 2015 at this point. We are all eagerly awaiting seeing him throw!  When he does, we’ll be watching his control.

Only threw 11 innings in 2014 and none since, averaging around 4.3 BB/9 with a 5+ ERA.  He will be 22 in 2016, and has some ground to make up, though could start at Rome with a quick bump to Carolina if all goes well.

Next: The Next Number One

Jul 12, 2015; Cincinnati, OH, USA; World infielder Ozhaino Albies fields a ball during batting practice before the All Star Futures Game with the U.S. Team at Great American Ballpark. Mandatory Credit: David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports

6. Ozhaino Albies

The Good:

Albies was probably as low on this list as he was anywhere in the preseason as we were waiting to see if he’d be able to handle a full-season program. He received a LOT of helium as 2015 prospect lists came out, with Kiley McDaniels of Fangraphs rating Albies as the Braves #1 prospect. His season has certainly backed up the hype, and #1 is probably where he truly belongs at this point.

While many project Albies to have no power, from watching his swing and noting his incredible speed, we would say that there’s a solid chance that he could become a guy that hits similar to Craig Biggio – usually right around 8-10 home runs, but often 50+ extra base hits. Albies has flashed the leather to a high degree in Rome as an 18 year-old, and we wouldn’t be surprised if he gets a bump to Carolina to finish the season. UPDATE:  Last week, Albies was found to have a hairline fracture on his throwing thumb; while it isn’t a serious injury, it will end his year.

He’s got up-the-middle defense, tremendous contact (some have graded his hit tool as a present 60), and speed to burn (65 to 70) on the basepaths. With milb.tv, I’ve been blessed to see more of Albies this year, and he reminds me a lot of a former Twin, Cristian Guzman, when he runs out a triple. Guzman, as I’ve mentioned before, was not a great base stealer, but I’d grade him as the best base runner I’ve ever seen in person due to his ability to cut the edge of the base just perfectly when legging out a triple or going from first to third. Albies not only has that kind of base running acumen, but he also has the base stealing skills that his speed grants as well, likely projecting as a guy who could steal 30+ bases in the majors if he had a green light to run.

The Not-So-Good:

The list is short with Albies, but it is there. He’s walked at around an 8% rate this year, which is down from last season (but still double the rate Jose Peraza was getting). To make the great contact even more of a threat and really use his speed, increasing that walk rate would be ideal. He also has bumped up his K rate to 12.8% this year. Those numbers together are not a worry at all, and in fact, they’re both solid numbers from an 18 year-old, but they’re a trend from better numbers, so it’s something to keep an eye on. Of course, it’d be nice to see a ball or three leave the park, but we think Albies has a great swing for driving the ball to, and against the wall, where he’ll get a lot of extra base hits that make pitchers sweat.

The Stats:

• A-Rome:  98 games, 439 plate apps.  .310/.368/.404/.772.  29 steals, 8.2% BB, 12.8% K

TRENDING:

The unfortunate premature end of his 2015 season probably cheats Albies out of a taste of Carolina League ball, but he’ll certainly get that next year, with a possible jump to AA by the end of 2016. You can likely also pencil in a Spring Training invite.  Regardless, Albies is likely moving to the top of this list and could find himself as a top-25 prospect in all of baseball by the end of the season if he can maintain his hitting at current levels.

Since Albies is likely to be the consensus #1 prospect for next year, it’s also fair to take a moment to project a bit further.  He’s still very young – will be 19 at the beginning of the year – and might still have some room for growth (listed at a generous 5’9″/150).

If he indeed reaches AA in late 2016, that puts him within shouting distance of the majors in 2017, perhaps 2018 at worst.  If Jace Peterson and Andrelton Simmons continue their good work, then by the time 2018 rolls around, the Braves could have an interesting decision to make.  Both would be under team control (via contract or otherwise) through 2020, and thus far, it appears that Albies could stick at either position, thus making one of them expendable… but that’s where we’ll stop for today, as projecting three seasons ahead in a John Hart world is a fool’s errand!

Next: The Enigma is Catching

Jun 9, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves catcher Christian Bethancourt (27) tags out San Diego Padres Melvin Upton, Jr. (2) in the eighth inning at Turner Field. The Braves won 6-5. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

7. Christian Bethancourt

The Good:

With regular playing time, Christian Bethancourt is hitting suprisingly well.  That’s been a big concern over the past several years, yet he’s clubbing a .314 average at AAA, and while there isn’t a lot of home run power, there are a batch of XBHs:  3 HR, 14 doubles for a .462 SLG rate.

The Not-So-Good:

Various factors contributed to his demotion earlier in the year:  inconsistent hitting was just a part of this (though his ever-shrinking platoon arrangement with A.J. Pierzynski didn’t help).  The big deal involved his work ethic. Game preparation, game concentration, general attitude, the works.

You might think that a kid finally getting his shot to be the #1 catcher in the majors after six years in the minors would be enough of a motivating factor to do everything necessary to stick there, but it hasn’t been the case for the near-24-year-old.  Moreover, early reports about his ‘re-education’ in AAA suggest mixed results (per report from David O’Brien in a chat Q&A last week).  So he’s improving, but not yet dramatically so.

As a result, the Braves have been looking for “young catching”. Whether that makes Bethancourt ‘Plan A’ or ‘Plan B’ for the future is still to be determined, but it is likely that we will see him in the majors again in September to see how things has progressed.  But if O’Brien’s report is accurate, we expect his Braves’ days are numbered.

The Stats:

• Majors:  29 games, 104 PA.  .198/.221/.287/.508.  2.9% BB rate, 17.3% K rate.
• Majors defense:  10 steals allowed, 6 caught.  5 passed balls, 3 wild pitches allowed.  3 errors (1 throwing).
• AAA:  41 games, 168 PA.  .314/.347/.462/.809.  5.4% BB rate, 13.7% K rate

TRENDING:

Bethancourt is still trending out of favor unless/until he can turn around those opinions… and if he continues to hit like he’s doing in AAA, then it’s only his own game discipline that will hold him back.  But it is very clear that the clock is running out for him, as the Braves could make a move this off-season to solidify the catching position – a move that would place him firmly on the trading block.

That is the first installment of our report of progress for our early-2015 minor league prospects.  Expect two more in the coming days.

Next: MLB Needs to Close Some Loopholes