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Atlanta Braves Mid-Season Prospect Reports

By Alan Carpenter

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MLB baseballs on the field before a game between the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

2. Lucas Sims

The Good:

21-year-old Lucas Sims was acquired in the first round of the 2012 draft, 21st overall, and was almost immediately tagged as a future top-of-the-rotation starter.  His 2012 rookie campaign did little to squelch that, with high strikeout totals and generally good results.  This season, he has recovered those kinds of strikeout numbers (8.33 K/9) after averaging just 6 during 2014.  The fastball is the best pitch of this 6’2″ right-hander, which grades out at 60-to-65 depending on who you ask.  Sims’s curve is close behind that, and is probably his best swing-and-miss offering.  He has fully recovered for his bruises suffered in the Mudcat bus crash, and was promoted to AA recently.

The Not-So-Good:

Control is the issue.  Sims had a poor season in 2014 at High-A Lynchburg, and started this season in the same league (now Carolina Mudcats).  Between the recovery of his K-rate and personnel moves, he was recently bumped to AA, despite obvious struggles with control and hittability. His High-A WHIP was 1.55; in 17 AA innings it’s 1.76.  That increase seems to be all in extra walks since Oppo hitting is down from .255 to .210.

Sims’ star has definitely slipped:  fangraphs now rates his future value at just 50 on the 80 scale.  That’s more like back end of the rotation at this point.

The Stats:

  • High-A:  40 innings (9 starts).  5.18 ERA; 8.33 K/9, 5.18 BB/9
  • AA:  17 innings (4 starts).  7.41 ERA, 12.18 K/9, 9 BB/9.

TRENDING:

Certainly, Sims is trending downward (and this #2 ranking will not hold), though he’s still a young 21, so he has some time to get things back together if he can locate his pitches with regularity.  Nonetheless, he’s physically getting to the point at which he has most of the tools he will ever have, and the challenge will be whether he can consistently put them together.  If he can persevere through that, then he’s still got a shot.  But right now, he looks like a trade candidate.  2016 will be a key year for him regardless.

Next: Prepping for the Majors?

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