Braves, Dodgers, Marlins Complete Three Team Blockbuster

A lot of fans seem to be divided over this deal.  And if you follow me on Twitter, you know I’m a bit sour on this deal for Atlanta.  The blow was softened a little bit once the inclusion of Arroyo was revealed this morning, since he was likely to never throw a single live pitch in any capacity for the Braves.  To put it in perspective, you could think of the deal as this:

Braves receive:  Olivera, Rodriguez, Bird, Toussaint, and a draft pick

Dodgers receive:  Wood, Peraza, Johnson, Avilan, Arroyo, Gosselin

It’s not really fair to push these deals together to defend a less than stellar one, but in reality, this is what has happened.  The Braves absorbed salary to get a good prospect, but have managed to rid themselves of that same salary by potentially not receiving as well of a return for Wood and Peraza.

Wood and Avilan are also arbitration eligible starting in 2016, who have 4 and 3 remaining years of team control, respectively.  These future salaries were obviously not guaranteed, but they are now a non-factor for the Braves going forward, so the Braves also shed some potential future salary while acquiring a reasonable contract in Olivera.

Olivera signed a $62.5MM deal this past offseason, but a whopping $28MM of that was a signing bonus that while has not been fully paid, will continued to be paid by the Dodgers.  So what does that leave the Braves with?

• 15:  $2MM
• 16:  $4MM
• 17:  $6MM
• 18:  $6.5MM
• 19:  $7.5MM
• 20:  $8.5MM

That’s not bad at all.  So why am I so sour on the deal?

Olivera is 30 years old. The Braves will be paying him until he’s 35.  Basically everyone understands that baseball players begin to decline around 31 to 32 years of age.  So while his MLB production is still to be determined, it will also begin on the backside of his physical peak.  And speaking of physical peak…

Olivera has a big injury concern in his elbow.  So much that the Dodgers had a clause to retain him for the 2021 season for a salary of $1MM if he has elbow surgery in any capacity that requires him to miss 100 games in a single year. The Braves now have that safety net.

Another aspect for me is that in terms of straight up value, the Braves seem to be a little short.  I believe that Alex Wood and Jose Peraza combined have much more potential than Olivera in the future, even if a bit more costly.  I broke it down (albeit very simply) on Twitter earlier today:

Wood and Olivera are obviously the biggest impact pieces, and they both have plenty of team control.  So those cancel out.  Avilan is an inconsistent left handed reliever who’s inconsistencies are effectively matched by the health problems of the better Paco Rodriguez.  Johnson wasn’t going to net a top prospect as he nears free agency, so Johnson for a fringe pitching prospect makes sense.  So that leaves Jose Peraza as the scale tipper.

I’ve never been a huge Peraza fan for the same as others:  I just can’t put too much faith in a one dimensional offensive player.  But despite my concerns, many have continued to peg him as the Braves top prospect.  Even Baseball America had him pegged as the 26th best prospect in the game at the All-Star break.  So can we realistically say that he was worth a single Competitive Balance pick?  I’d have to say no.  He might not have the highest ceiling, but he had a pretty high floor, and will likely be a productive major league player at least for a few seasons.

This is a risky move for the Braves that I fear might not pay off in terms of future talent, but it is a creative move by John Hart to trade from a position of depth to acquire a potential immediate impact player at third base in 2016.  The future is still bright for the Braves.