3 reasons why the Braves shouldn't worry about the Marlins and 2 why they should
The Atlanta Braves are currently sitting comfortably at the top of the NL East standings with a 39-24 record and are currently on a 6-game winning streak. Coming out of a series sweep over the New York Mets, the Braves are in a solid position to win their sixth consecutive division title.
However, the one team that could potentially cause a threat to the Braves in the NL East are the Miami Marlins, who are playing hot right now and as of this writing are six games above .500 for the season. This ballclub has surprised a lot of people in the league and are currently the only other team in the NL East that is above .500.
With that being said, here are reasons why the Braves should worry about the Marlins catching up with them in the division, as well as some reasons why they shouldn't.
Why The Braves Should Worry
Luis Arraez
If there is one name from the Marlin's roster the Braves should worry about, it's Luis Arraez. Miami's second baseman is the hottest hitter in baseball right now, hitting a jaw-dropping .400 for the season, the highest batting average in the league. According to Sarah Langs from MLB.com, Arraez's batting average is the 10th-best by a qualified hitter in his team’s first 64 games, since 1941. He joins a list of hitters that includes Braves great Chipper Jones to do achieve such a feat.
Speaking of batting average, Arraez is averaging .384 on the road. He also leads the Marlins in hits (88) and OBP (.449). The Marlins are currently scheduled to play the Braves in Truist Park for a three game series starting June 30th. If Arraez continues to be hot, he will more than certainly cause some trouble for a Braves bullpen that has been suffering through injuries and depth issues. We will see how both teams look when they Marlins travel to Atlanta later this month.
Miami is close behind the Braves in the standings
The Marlins are not too far behind from the Braves in the NL East standings. As of this writing, the Marlins currently sit at 4.5 games behind for the division lead. The Marlins having been making a push in the division, having previously won series over the Philadelphia Phillies and the Washington Nationals this season. The Marlins were also on a six-game winning streak before falling to the Chicago White Sox, 1-2, on Friday night.
While the Braves are on their own winning streak, there is still a lot of baseball to be played. It is only June and a lot could happen between now and the end of the season. Remember that last season, the Braves were 10.5 games behind the Mets at one point before coming back at the tail end of the season to take the lead. While this is a different scenerio, all it takes is for one team to get hot for the division race to be turned on its head. The Braves just need to not get complacent as the season rolls on.
Why The Braves Should Not Worry
Braves' NL East Dominance
While the Marlins may be close to the top of the NL East, it's aslo important to note how dominant the Braves have been for the past five years. According to the Athletic, the Braves have a 227-137 record against the NL East since 2018, when they won the first of four-consecutive division titles. The Braves are also 22-1-2 against NL East opponents in their last 24 season series Their only loss during that span was to the Phillies in 2019, when they went 9-10 against them during the season series. Certainly not bad for a team that has basically run the division for four-straight seasons.
With the division dominance, the Braves have also been dominant over the Marlins in head-to-head this season. The Marlins are currently 1-6 against the Braves this season. In addition, the Braves are 68-28 against the Marlins since 2018. While the Marlins have looked improved over last season, the Braves have still showed that they are the better team in the division. Their dominance alone a reason while Braves fans shouldn't worry about the Marlins catching up in the division standings.
Marlins' Pitching Struggles
Like the Braves, the Marlins have had their share of pitching struggles this year. However, Marlins pitcher Sandy Alcantara, the reigning NL Cy Young award winner from 2022, has been struggling this year. In 2023, Sandy Alcantara has put up a 5.07 ERA and is 2-5 as a starter. That is much worse than his Cy Young winning season in 2022, where he recorded a 2.28 ERA and went 14-9 as a starter. In addition, he has posted a 6.43 ERA in his last seven games. Obviously, its has not looking too good for the Marlins pitcher.
While the Marlins aren't the worst pitching team in the league, they definitely have their struggles. As a team, the Marlins have posted a 4.16 ERA, which ranks 15th in the league. In Friday night's game against the White Sox, Marlins starting pitcher Dylan Floro finished with a 4.50 ERA, giving up two hits, a run, while also recording one walk and one strikeout each in the 1-2 loss. It seems like pitching has been a problem with the Marlins, much like it has been with the Braves' bullpen recently. Teams with solid hitting power would take advantage of this, which brings us to our last reason.
Braves' Hitting Power
The Braves offense has been on fire recently. The Braves rank second in the league in batting average, posting a combined .264. They trail only the Texas Rangers, who they beat in a earlier series this season, taking two-of-three. In the NL East, the Braves hot offense eclipses every other opponent, including the Marlins. The Braves currenlty have a run differential of +71. Meanwhile, the Marlins have a run differential of -25, despite being 4.5 games out from the division lead. That is a pretty huge difference between two teams at the top of the division.
Meanwhile, the Braves have also had some of the best hitters in the league. Ronald Acuña Jr currently leads the team in batting average (.327), OBP (.401), and hits (83). Acuña's batting average ranks third in the league, and him Luis Arraez are part of a tight race for NL MVP. In addition to Acuña's hitting power, Matt Olson, despite his recent slump, leads the Braves in home runs (17) and RBI's (43). Olson's 17 home runs is also tied for fourth in the league. This Braves offense should be pretty powerful against a Marlins team with holes at defense and pitching.