Debating the question: the Atlanta Braves should pursue Juan Soto
8. Soto is too expensive for the Braves
Soto is currently on a $17.1 million arbitration-level deal, which translates to being owed around $7.3 million for the rest of the season.
For a player of Soto’s caliber (He’s on pace for 5 bWAR this season; last year was 7.1), that’s a ridiculously low sum.
“But he wants half a billion dollars!” True, but that’s a conversation for the off-season after 2024… not now.
Well, okay… let’s go ahead and address that up front: is Atlanta up for a $35-40 million contract annually for the next decade-plus? No… but to make this worth the effort, they don’t have to be, either.
Let’s go ahead and jump into the next topic, since it’s directly relevant…
7. Atlanta can’t sign him for the long term
Is this really a problem? Think about this for a second: would you as a Braves fan be happy with a chance for 3 more deep post-season runs after having this World Series taste still lingering from 2021? Of course you would.
Do you think Soto would help this team get there? Of course he would.
How about this, then: do you have any idea what the state of the team’s finances or Soto’s health or anything else might be by the end of 2024? Nope.
Juan Soto is still arbitration eligible – i.e., he’s under complete team control – through the end of the 2024 season.
Yes: by the time 2024 rolls around, he will probably be in line for a record-breaking arbitration deal of something around $30 million… plus or minus. But there’s “no such thing as a bad one-year contract”, right?
So maybe… just maybe… we could look at a Soto acquisition as a 2½ year stint with anything else simply icing on the cake.
There is a Backup Plan, too
Hey – even if things were to sour and fall apart, Soto could be traded again for a prospect haul… and then Atlanta would benefit. But let’s check the upcoming calendars:
- Ronald Acuna is signed through 2026 with options for 2027 and 2028.
- Matt Olson is in through 2029 with a 2030 option.
- Ozzie Albies’ deal runs “only” through 2025 with 2 more years of options after that.
That’s it… that’s all of the long-term deals the Braves currently have on the books. So would it even make any sense to throw half a billion toward Soto through 2036 if you might be rebuilding by the end of this decade anyway?
Of course we don’t know how things might play out with players like Swanson (we could know soon on him), Fried, Riley, and perhaps Harris, but that’s the current state of things today.
From the 1990’s through 2010, the Braves seemed content to find that “big bat guy” in any manner they could.
For several years, it was Fred McGriff. But a sequence of big hitters followed who didn’t last for very many years: Andres Galarraga, J.D. Drew, Gary Sheffield, and Mark Teixeira.
Individually, you might decry the fact that they didn’t hang around very long. But look at some of the numbers from these ‘externally acquired’ bats:
- J.D. Drew: 8.6 fWAR in 2004
- Gary Sheffield: 7.3 fWAR in 2003 (and 4.8 in 2002)
- Andres Galarraga: 5.0 fWAR in 1998
- Mark Teixeira: 5.6 fWAR combined between the 2007 and 2008 trade deadlines
That’s easily the kind of league that Soto is in… his contributions could be enormous.
So don’t sweat the long-term… embrace the short term. In this case, embrace that it’s for a run of up to 3 post-season chances.