Atlanta Braves highs and lows on the way to 81 games

After 81 games, the Atlanta Braves are 47-34, 3 1/2 games back of the Mets in second place. It’s a good time to look at how they got here.

The Atlanta Braves lacked consistency early as the manager Brian Snitker looked for starting depth and ways to get the offense on track and keep it there. Here’s a look at some of the reasons the club is once again within striking distance of first place.

Pitching the Wright way

I expected Max Fried to dominate this season, and he is. In 107+ IP, he’s pitching to a 2.52 ERA, 173 ERA+, 1.025 WHIP, 3.21 SIERA, striking out 100 and walking 17.  I didn’t expect Kyle Wright to slot in as the team’s number two starter.

When the Atlanta Braves drafted Kyle Wright, I predicted he had the stuff and the polish to move quickly through the system. He did that, but his results weren’t good, and the movement was mostly up and down until this year.

Wright impressed the manager and coaches in Spring Training and broke camp with a chance to win a slot at the back of the rotation. He quickly did that and more.

In his four April starts, Wright struck out 34 and walked six while pitching to a 1.13 ERA in 24 IP. As Morton, Anderson, Elder, and Ynoa struggled, Wright found his rhythm, gained confidence, and hasn’t looked back.

He’s now the Atlanta Braves’ number two starter, pitching to a 2.91 ERA, 150 ERA+, 1.14 WHIP, 3.52 SIERA, striking out 98 and walking 31 in 96 IP.

Great strides

The Atlanta Braves drafted Spencer Strider in the fourth round of the abbreviated 2020 Rule 4 Amateur Draft; today, he owns a starting role in their rotation.

Strider began the season with 11 appearances out of the Braves bullpen, making his first start on May 30. As a starter, Strider’s thrown 35 1/3 innings, struck out 63% (53) batters and walked 12 while pitching to a 3.31 ERA.

Strider’s thrown just under 60 innings this year, 34 short of his career-high of 94 in 2021, and 63 of those innings came in AA. It’s reasonable to assume that the Braves will limit him to 120-140 innings, which works out to  12 starts if he remains in the rotation. Wherever he’s used, Strider’s here to stay,

Little brother steps up.

The Atlanta Braves cast their vote for William Contreras as the future of Braves’ catching when they traded Shea Langeliers to Oakland. The club planned for Contreras to start in AAA while Manny Pina backed up Travis d’Arnaud; then, Pina suffered a season-ending wrist injury.

Contreras stepped into the void, and it soon became apparent he was there to stay. In 94 PA as a catcher, he’s batting .293/.383/.659/1.042 with eight homers, and his defense is much improved over last season’s.

Contreras said he worked on his defense with his brother – Cubs’ catcher Willson Contreras – during the lockout, and I’m sure the Braves are glad he did.

Contreras the younger may go to the All-Star game as the DH, but for the Braves, he’s half of one of MLB’s best catching tandems.

Walk-year this way

Dansby Swanson entered his walk-year in a funk. After 22 games, he led MLB in strikeouts while batting .216/.293/.351/.644 with five doubles, one homer, a .286 wOBA, and 79 wRC+; then he woke up.

Since May 1, he’s batted .332/.383/.556/.939 with 13 doubles, 13 homers, a .404 wOBA, and 159 wRC+. Those numbers rank sixth in MLB among qualified batters since May 1, behind Paul Goldschmidt, Luis Arraez, Bryce Harper, Rafael Devers, and Alejandro Kirk.

Swanson’s resume:

• .507 slugging percentage, .868 OPS, 135 OPS+. 4.0 fWAR and .375 wOBA lead all 37 qualified shortstops,
• 139 wRC+ ranks second,
• 14 homers rank third.
• .361 OBP ranks fourth, and
• .303 average fifth.

Swanson’s once again been deadly with men on base and better with men in scoring position for the Atlanta Braves and continued to make the big plays on defense,

I wanna be like Mike

When Michael Harris II arrived from AA, all the Atlanta Braves wanted him to do was catch the ball in centerfield. He’s done that and a lot more. In his 35 games, Harris is batting .302/.338/.508/.846, with a 128 OPS+, five homers, seven doubles, and two triples. Oh, and about that defense. . .

Harris II won NL Rookie of the month for June and is odds-on to win NL Rookie of the Year.

Atlanta Braves in-house reinforcements

The Braves have filled in for the injured Albies with a mix of Arcia and Gosselin. In Arcia’s 16 games, he’s batted 233/.299/.350/.649 and hit two homers. Fangraphs makes that equal to a .288 wOBA and 81 wRC+ in 67 PA. His production isn’t far off of Albies numbers before the injury.

Gosselin appeared in the field eight times and is batting .273/.304/.273/.577 with a .261 wOBA and 62 wRC+ in 23 PA. He’s started the last two games, but Arcia returned Wednesday.

If the club needs to find another infielder internally, Pat Valaika’s the most likely candidate. The former Rockies and Orioles infielder is batting .260/.326/.418.745 with seven homers for Gwinnett.

Return of the wounded

Help is beginning to arrive. Eddie Rosario and his rebuilt eyes returned and had hits in his first two games. Matzek returned Tuesday and looked like he was back to his old self. He even duplicated his behind-the-back catch for us.

https://twitter.com/Braves/status/1544504048887496706

Jansen told reporters he’s planning to return as soon as the rules allow, which is July 12, and played long toss today.

Mike Soroka threw a simulated game and could start a rehab assignment soon. Brian Snitker told David O’Brien and others that he was encouraged by the progress of Soroka and Kirby Yates.

Soroka did take a come-backer off a knee recently, and that may slow his progress just a bit.

That’s a wrap

The Atlanta Braves managed to put together their winning streak despite their problems. However, the schedule’s getting harder.

I believe they’ll need a starter – doesn’t everyone? – and a bat; Brandon Drury would fit nicely, thank you. He’s right-handed, and as I wrote a week ago, Alex Anthopoulos said he would like a lefty.

We should know something after the All-Star game unless AA sneaks one in while no one is looking. When the Braves do make a move, we’ll fill you in here at the Take.