Two upcoming dates critical to the future of the Atlanta Braves
In truth, the clock is already ticking loudly, but if the Atlanta Braves miss both of these dates this month, there may have to be a big change to deal with next Spring.
Atlanta Braves General Manager Alex Anthopoulos has truly done his job well this season when measuring this team against the ruler of wins and losses… which of course is the only ruler that matters to most fans.
There have been some obvious problems that fell out of his control — Marcell Ozuna‘s arrest, the injuries to both Ronald Acuna Jr. and Mike Soroka being highest on the list.
The trade deadline acquisitions have proven to be almost perfect. I say almost in that there are always the fish that got away: a “true” center fielder and an additional bullpen arm being the deals that he couldn’t pull off. On balance, though… not bad at all.
As things have unfolded this Summer in the days since, Anthopoulos has looked into his crystal ball and foreseen reasons to get started on the 2022 season.
In Travis d’Arnaud, he saw the need for a veteran catcher to not only lead the charge, but one that already knows his staff and can mentor the next generation to come.
In Charlie Morton, he saw a top-of-the-rotation starter who is one of those rare horses who seems to be getting better and more durable with age (in this, his 14th major league season, his ERA is lower than all but 3 other years).
Anthopoulos has now extended both players for 2022, eliminating the need to fight in the scrum for the precious few free agent scraps that will be available this Winter at those positions.
Which leaves one matter to be dealt with.
Circle 2 dates on your Atlanta Braves magnetic schedule
We learned this week that the Braves have finally engaged in contract extension discussions with their multi-year All-Star and reigning MVP of the National League, Freddie Freeman.
Freddie Freeman and Braves have been talking but there’s still a gap so free agency appears a surprisingly strong possibility. Both sides want to get it done and that’s the likelihood eventually. Reminiscent of Turner/LAD and HOF Jeter/NYY talks, great FA who stayed. @MLBNetwork
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) September 9, 2021
Let’s discuss where the parties really are at this stage.
Let’s not add to the drama
I won’t yet go to the level of alarm that Jon Heyman seems to be raising here in this tweet; my thoughts are more along the lines expressed by Steve Adams of MLBTradeRumors.com:
That a “gap” exists between the two parties effectively goes without saying. (He’d be signed by now without one.)
Duh. The question we want to know the answer to — and can’t get the information about — is “how big is the gap?”
The obvious starting point is Paul Goldschmidt‘s 5 year deal with St. Louis for $130 million ($26 million per year). This happened in March of 2019.
At that time, Goldy was almost exactly 31½ years old. Tomorrow, Freddie Freeman turns 32 years old. Both are accomplished first basemen.
Goldschmidt has been a 6-time All-Star, owns 3 Gold Gloves, and 4 Silver Sluggers. He was an MVP runner-up twice and had one other Top-10 year.
Freeman has been an All-Star 5 times, the league MVP in 2020 (and top 10 on four other occasions), a Gold Glove winner only once (mostly thanks to Goldschmidt), and 2-time Silver Slugger recipient. He also was a Rookie of the Year runner-up.
Lifetime OPS+: 138 for Freeman, 141 for Goldschmidt. Batting average? Freeman .295 and Goldy .292. They are 4 homers and 22 RBI apart.
At this point, it’s about at close a “comp” as you could ever find. Given Goldschmidt’s slow, but noticeable decline in recent seasons, though, Freeman will likely eclipse him in all of those numbers in the coming years.
The Key Calendar Marks
The dates to watch are these: September 13 and September 27. These are the last two off-days for the Atlanta Braves this year.
Sure… if a contract agreement is reached, any day could be used to make an announcement, but generally speaking, it’s best to do these things when the attention and focus can be wholly on the organization and the player — particularly when we’re talking about dollars in the 9-figure arena.
An announcement this Monday would suggest an amicable agreement… one that both sides are happy about. If it drags to September 27th, that might be a little less so, though ultimately any “agreement” would be good overall.
If we get past that second off-day, though… it is at that point that fans should start freaking out a bit. Unfortunately, that’s not hyperbole.
That Last Week
This September 27 date ushers in the last week of the regular season, and time for negotiations should end as the Braves would have to be keeping their focus on the field — particularly if the Phillies are still hanging around (there’s a potentially vital 3-game series happening that week, too).
It’s a date also too close to the playoffs and the end of the season… and to free agency.
Sure: there is a 5-day period of time after the World Series ends in which teams are permitted the exclusive right to negotiate with their own free-agents-to-be in the hopes of getting them inked before hitting the open market.
But how often has that actually occurred?
If things get that far (and one could easily argue that we’re on the cusp of “that far” already), then teams like the Yankees, Angels, and Dodgers would be lining up to wine and dine Freddie and Chelsea this Winter. The numbers they would be presenting are of the likes that Atlanta can’t realistically compete with.
And the Braves would have only themselves to blame as they then scramble to find somebody to be their team’s “heart and soul” — never mind also carrying an MVP-caliber bat — for the next 5+ years.
You can’t replace Freddie Freeman. Period. On the field or off… or even when playing Team Ambassador to settle down the beanball battle that emerged with the Nationals this week… the man was shuttling all over the field like he was Henry Kissinger.
The floor is $26 million – the Goldschmidt deal. The “Gap” might involve the number of years more than the number of dollars… maybe the Braves want to give only 5. Maybe Freeman wants 7.
Let’s suggest this: 4 years at $30 million each, a 5th year at $26, a 6th year at $24, and an option for year 7 at $20 million. A guaranteed $170 million for the 6 seasons (AAV of $28.33 million).
Can the two sides get this done? The Braves have been making a habit of doing the vital things quickly, knowing that they can control their own destiny in that manner.
Next. A potentially key bullpen arm?. dark
Getting Freddie Freeman extended is certainly a task that falls in that category of “vital” things.