Atlanta Braves: Where Would Charlie Morton Go In A Trade?
The Atlanta Braves are in a tough spot as the trade deadline draws near
As Braves fans mourned the loss of Ronald Acuña Jr. for the year, the odds of the Atlanta Braves making the playoffs dropped dramatically. In fact, Fangraphs now has the Atlanta Braves odds of making the playoffs at a very bad 7.5%.
The Atlanta Braves have a plethora of holes to fill. All 3 current starting outfielders were not in the plans to be starters when the season began. If we look at the opening day lineup, the Atlanta Braves are missing their number 1, 4, and 5 hitters in Acuña, Marcell Ozuna, and Travis d’Arnaud respectively.
The rotation has been very impressive as of late, but it is missing key pieces in Mike Soroka, Huascar Ynoa, Tucker Davidson, possibly Ian Anderson just to name a few. Kyle Wright and Bryse Wilson have also seemed to not have been able to take the step up that was expected.
This is not meant to be all doom and gloom. After all, the Atlanta Braves have a strong core that is set to compete for years to come. The front office could decide to go for a playoff push since there will be reinforcements coming with d’Arnuad and Ynoa scheduled to come back in late August. From a business standpoint, revenue is higher for playoff teams as well. With that in mind, there is a chance that since playoffs are still theoretically possible, they may go for it.
However, with the excessive amount of injuries this season, and the team having never made it over .500 once this season, it may sway the front office to trade off their one-year contracts that can’t help them beyond this season. It would make sense to at least get something than nothing at all.
Charlie Morton is the likeliest Atlanta Braves contract to be traded
Morton is the clear-cut most valuable one-year contract the Atlanta Braves currently have. In 18 games his numbers are impressive:
· ERA+ of 122 (22% better than league average),
· ERA of 3.64,
· 14 strikeouts
· WHIP of 1.101.
What is even better is that in his last 7 games:
· ERA of 2.79
· batting average against of .166.
According to Baseball Savant, it shows him being due to regress slightly:
· expected ERA (xERA) on the season of 3.85
· expected batting average against of .228
However, even those numbers would still be extremely valuable to a team that is pushing for a playoff spot. If the Atlanta Braves decide to trade one-year contracts, teams would be lining up for Morton’s services.
Who is most likely to trade for Morton, should he become available?
It is important to note that Charlie Morton does not have a no trade clause, nor is due any incentives upon a trade. These factors make Morton’s contract even more attractive. First, because there will be no roadblocks to get a trade done once a trade is agreed upon. Second, there is not much financial risk since they will only be responsible for a few months of his pay.
It should also be noted that Morton is the type of guy that any team could use. The ideology of “They already have 5 starters, where would he pitch” is flawed. Even if there was a team that had 5 starters better than Morton, injuries still happen. It is safe to say, surely Atlanta Braves fans can attest to this.
The Atlanta Braves could work well with the San Diego Padres in a trade scenario
The San Diego Padres are a very good team. At the time of this writing, they are very much in the playoff hunt with a 90.6% chance to make the playoffs, and have a .570 winning percentage. Yet, they are 3rd in their division.
If they want to win their division and avoid a wild card game, they are going to have to pick up their pace. Injuries have already hurt them in the rotation department as Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, and Dinelson Lamet, are currently on the 10 day IL.
The Atlanta Braves would mostly take the best offer available for Morton, rather than try to fill a specific need since a rental player like Morton would most likely not net a franchise-changing package. The Atlanta Braves need outfielders, but you won’t see them trading for a guy like Tommy Pham who is also a rental if they are giving up a rental.
The Padres have the 6th ranked farm system, so they have plenty to offer. They could easily win a bidding war against any team they want for Morton’s services. Odds are that the Padres would most likely offer a prospect package, rather than players already on the major league squad since they are pushing hard to catch the Dodgers and Giants. This could work in the Braves’ favor as it could result in an overpay in prospects.
The Atlanta Braves and the Brew Crew make sense on paper. Could this be Morton’s future destination?
The Brewers are in a different scenario than the Padres. They currently lead their division and seem to be clear cut favorites with an 80.5% chance to win it. The next closest are the Cincinnati Reds, who seem to be over performing and only have a 15.3% chance of winning their division.
The Brewers have a great record, but their strength of schedule is a bit weak compared to the rest of MLB with only the Reds and Chicago Cubs having weaker schedules. Even with 3 rotation arms with an expected fielding independent pitching (xFIP) of 3.70 or below, Morton would go a long way in solidifying the rotation for a long playoff run.
The Brewers do not have a strong farm system, and they have quite a few starters on their roster with 1 or 2 years left on their contracts, so it makes sense for them to make a push right now. The real question is what type of package they could offer the Atlanta Braves.
Could Alex Anthopoulos work some kind of magic with salaries and take a shot on a guy like Lorenzo Cain (if he gets back from injury in time) who has high potential, but has been injured. Would the Brewers do something like that? It is hard to say. Whether it is MLB players or prospects, the Brewers have options to offer the Atlanta Braves that can help Atlanta next year and beyond. The positive for the Atlanta Braves is that the Brewers may be willing to overpay a bit to help ensure a deep playoff run.
The Atlanta Braves have not made many trades with the Rays in the past, but could that change?
The Rays are yet again in the playoff hunt, even after trading some key pieces during the offseason. Could they make a trade with the Atlanta Braves and bring back a familiar face in Charlie Morton?
The Rays currently sit in second place in the American League East and are only 1.5 games behind the Boston Red Sox. According to Fangraphs, they have a 69% chance to make the playoffs, and a 25.3% chance to win their division.
Of their 5 pitchers with the most innings, only 2 of them have an ERA below 3.74, and an xFIP of 3.98. One of those pitchers is Tyler Glansow who is currently injured. Rich Hill is also extremely injury prone. If the Rays want to compete this year, another solid rotation piece would go a long way in not only making the playoffs, but having a solid top 3 rotation for the playoffs.
The Rays are not typically ones to pay the type of contract that Morton currently has, but with only a fraction the season left, and Morton being a free agent after the year, they could afford it if they chose to go this route. The Rays have the top farm system in MLB. They can win any bidding war they want. With a farm system like the one they have, odds are the Braves and Rays could find a deal that works for both of them.
Next. Atlanta Braves Dream Scenario for Second Half of the Season. dark
If the Atlanta Braves trade Morton, it would be a sad day because it would be the unofficial waving of the white flag. The Atlanta Braves may still want to make a push. But, if the Braves do decide that they don’t believe they can make the playoffs, Morton makes the most sense to move.