Atlanta Braves add Joc Pederson: what fans should expect
The Atlanta Braves put a Band-Aid on their wounded outfield by adding a solid defensive outfield with thunder in his bat.
It’s impossible to replace Ronald Acuna Jr., but the Atlanta Braves had to upgrade their outfield defense and replace some of their lost power.
As Alan wrote last night, the team began the process by acquiring Joc Pederson from the Cubs for A-Ball first baseman/DH, Bryce Ball. I was a little amazed by the shock and anger trading Ball aroused in some fans, so I’ll clear up that issue before moving on.
Bryce Ball has light-tower power. I was impressed with that when the team drafted him, but let’s be clear about who Bryce is as a player. The Braves selected the unranked-by-anyone 1B/DH in the 24th round of the 2019 draft. He hit well in Rookie League play but hasn’t shown much of a hit tool this year.
Related Story. It happened last night. light
Ball just turned 23 last week but looks at least three – probably four – years away from a shot in the majors. While he was a 40-future-grade player ranked the 12th best prospect in the Atlanta Braves system, those ranking are relative to the other players in the system. A 40-grade player is “organizational depth”.
According to MLB Pipeline, Ball entered the Cubs system as their 29th ranked prospect this morning and will drop after their drafted players are added to the ranking. Now, let’s talk about Joc.
Joc Pederson
The Dodgers selected Pederson in the 11th round of the 2010 draft. MLB ranked him a top-100 prospect from 2013 through 2015; Baseball American and Baseball Prospectus agreed in 2014 and 2015.
Pederson had a cup of coffee with the Dodgers in 2014 and joined their active roster in 2015. His calling card is a power bat; from his first full season through 2019, he banged out 123 homers, 102 doubles, and seven triples while batting .234/.339/.479/.818 with a 119 OPS+, good for 10.1 rWAR from BBR.
Fangraphs says those seasons were worth .348 wOBA, 120 wRC+, and 13.1 fWAR, placing him in a tie as the 21st of 137 qualified outfielders in fWAR.
Joc Pederson is on a flight now, Snitker thinks he’ll be here for the game, but he won’t be in #Braves lineup tonight. Going forward, the plan is for him to bat leadoff and be the regular right fielder.
— David O'Brien (@DOBrienATL) July 16, 2021
Production
The analytically driven Dodger front office decided Pederson was strictly a platoon bat, in 2017 dropping his plate appearances in that season. However, injuries gave Pederson a chance to play more often in 2018 and 2019, and he produced at a very high level.
Over the same two-year period, the Atlanta Braves outfield (as a group) batted .292/.369/.437/.806 with a .346 wOBA and 113 wRC+ and 4.4 fWAR.
Like almost every player, Pederson started 2021 slowly. He began to turn things around when the calendar flipped to May. Since May 5, he’s batting .254/.310/.443/.753, including 10 homers, 11 doubles, and a triple, good for a .331 wOBA and 108 wRC+.
Postseason beast
The Atlanta Braves added another trait they needed, a dangerous postseason bat. Pederson loves postseason play and has a résumé that shows he’s a force in postseason play.
In 64 postseason games, he batted .272/.349/.503/.852, with eight doubles and nine homers. He’s been particularly hard on the Braves; 11-32 with three homers and a .344/.382/.563/.945 line.
Defense
The Dodgers used Pederson predominantly in center field to start his career, then moved him to left-field when they began platooning him at the plate. The 2019 season is the only one where Pederson had significant innings in right-field. His 259 innings were worth 5 DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) and 1.0 UZR.
He played mostly left field with the Cubs this season and found the wind in Chicago difficult to overcome. Wind won’t factor in to play in Atlanta as much as it does in Chicago; he should handle either corner role well for the Braves.
That’s a wrap
Joc Pederson is a solid addition to an Atlanta Braves lineup short of left-handed bats and power. He isn’t perfect, but he’s a very good player.
The Braves traded Ball’s limited and replaceable potential four years from now for a proven Major League player they needed now. Trade value is one of the ways a prospect helps a team.
Fans want it both ways; they demand trades but don’t want their favorite prospect traded; that’s not how it works. Teams want value for their player in some form. Not your value, or my value or the value on some website, but it’s the team’s internal value based on the information they have.
Next. Time to step up. dark
Ball falling to 29th in the Cubs system — before the newly drafted players are added — tells you what the Atlanta Braves gave up.